With the Giants not making the playoffs, in a way, their season is over. In another, more accurate way, they have 16 games remaining. As they need baseball players to play in those games, and those players want to finish the year strong heading into 2025, let’s take a look at a few Giants who have attainable statistical goals to hit before the end of the season.
Heliot Ramos
.800 OPS
Ramos was a breakout star for the Giants in the first half, and while his August wasn’t bad (.746 OPS), it wasn’t on the same level as his first few months. But here in September, he’s seen a sharp downturn in all his numbers, hitting just .206/.222/.294 over the first 11 days, which has dropped his OPS to .798.
Is there any tangible difference when you’re watching a game between a guy with an OPS of .801 and a guy with an OPS of .798? No, not really. But in terms of symbolism, it feels important. This is the Giants’ first homegrown outfield All-Star in 40 years, and for him to fall off sharply at the end of the year would feel very ominous for next season.
Still, there is reason to be optimistic that this is just a small sample size fluke. Ramos’s success earlier this year was built on him mashing the ball, just hitting it incredibly hard all the time. In August, he’d fallen off a little bit, but over the first half of September, he’s back to mashing the ball. He’s not striking out a whole lot (or walking, unfortunately), but there’s reason to hope that he’ll get past that .800 mark that separates “pretty good hitter” from “good hitter.”
Tyler Fitzgerald
.300 AVG
There’s no sugarcoating that Tyler Fitzgerald is definitely headed for regression next year. He has drastically overperformed this year, in terms of both preseason expectations and his underlying numbers. No one can sustain a .391 BABIP over multiple seasons. His wOBA is .370 (great!) and his expected wOBA is .303 (less great). If you look at the top of his Statcast page, there are only a couple things he’s even particularly good at.
Now, it’s possible that he’s doing something sustainable that isn’t being captured by the numbers. It’s not technically unfeasible for him to continue this performance next year as smartypantses at Fangraphs or Baseball Prospectus or wherever try to figure out the flaws in their system. These things aren’t off the table.
…but they’re not likely either. Probably, Fitzgerald will come back to Earth next year and be a light hitting shortstop who fields acceptably. So let him have this .300 average this year. Hike that BABIP up to .400 and let’s go wild for the last few weeks here. Let him have this on the back of his baseball card.
Grant McCray
K% under 30%
This is tough, but possible. In 81 plate appearances this year, McCray has struck out 32 times, a K% of 39.5%, way too high for him to be a successful major leaguer (Joey Bart’s highest K% as a Giant was 38.5% in 2022, for comparison). If he’s going to stick next year, he needs to show better contact skills
The Giants have 16 games left. Let’s assume McCray gets 3 PA/game (maybe he doesn’t start every one, maybe he gets pinch hit for). That puts him at 129 major league plate appearances for the season. To be at a 30% strikeout rate, he needs to be at 39 strikeouts at most, which means in his 48 remaining PAs this year, McCray can only strike out 7 times.
Considering his track record so far this year, that’s not super plausible, but on the other hand, that’s what makes it a worthwhile goal. If Grant McCray wants to prove that he belongs on next year’s roster, he’s already done a lot of the work to get there. But this is an important step to show that he won’t get carved up like a modern day Jarrett Parker.
Marco Luciano
Starting every day
Marco Luciano should start every day unless he’s injured.
Logan Webb
200 IP
Does it really matter for a pitcher to throw 200 innings? Webb was one of just five pitchers in the majors to do it last year, and this year, it looks like the only pitchers with a shot are Webb, Seth Lugo, and Logan Gilbert. 20 years ago, 200 innings was the minimum acceptable threshold for an ace; now, it’s a 50/50 shot if anyone in your division will get there.
This is how the game has evolved: when you throw 97 as a starter, you’re taking too much out of your arm to make it through the 7th inning most nights. Front offices are optimizing everything, and a starter who goes 5 good innings and then hands it over to a bullpen replete with guys who hit 100 with a 90 MPH slider and a nasty sweeper that will ruin their arms in two years is how you win games.
So seeing Logan Webb stand as a living testament to how things used to be is important, and it’s great. Webb’s had another strong year, and he deserves to be the only guy in baseball to pitch 200 innings in each of the last two years. It’s cool and it’s fun, and in an era where baseball is moving away from impressive individual accomplishments — the things that fans tune in to see! — I want to see Webb get that one as long as he can.
Hayden Birdsong
Make it through the lineup twice in every start
This goal was originally “4.5 BB/9” but I looked at the numbers and that would require him to pitch 18 more innings this year without walking anyone, and considering that Birdsong has gone 6 innings exactly once this year, even with 3 starts remaining, well, we can probably eliminate that as a possibility.
Birdsong has gotten raves this year for the way he’s pitched and, if I’m being honest, I don’t really get it. It’s not that he doesn’t have potential or that he hasn’t done anything right, but he’s walking way too many guys and he’s getting absolutely crushed the second time through the order, to the tune of .281/.416/.439. Combined, these two flaws have meant that he doesn’t go deep in games — he’s started 12 games this year, and has only gotten through the fifth inning 4 times.
Yes, we’re at the tail end of the season and Birdsong is probably tired, but if he’s going to be an option for next year’s rotation, he needs to show that he’s a starting pitcher and wouldn’t be better served by being moved to the bullpen, and time’s running out to prove that. Like the saying kind of goes, the best time to go deep in games was in August, but the second best time is now.
Camilo Doval
Just…have good outings
Yeah, the premise of this thing was that I was going to give numbers for everyone to hit, but…I don’t really know what to do about Camilo Doval. All his peripheral stats suggest that he should have had a significantly better season than he did, though still not actually a good season. But watching him, you know he’s bad.
And so, what I would like to see from Camilo Doval over these last two and a half weeks, is for him to consistently look good when I watch him instead of bad. Since he came back from Sacramento, he’s actually been worse than he was earlier in the season, with a 6.43 ERA, 4.46 FIP, and 7.71 BB/9. His GB% has declined. He just hasn’t been able to find any consistency.
I don’t think there’s anything Doval can do right now to be anointed the closer in Spring Training 2025. Ryan Walker has been too good and Doval has been too bad this year. But right now, based on results, Doval is a fringe reliever or trade bait, and neither of those possibilities is a great outcome for someone with his talent, but they’re both better than watching him blow games day after day.
So a healthy Camilo Doval mowing guys down is my last wish here. Look like he looked last year, or in 2022.
Or, if that’s not possible, shut him down and get his arm a couple extra weeks of rest. Maybe it’ll help him out in 2025.
I agree with you on everyone but Birdsong (parts of it). He def needs to prove that he can go the 2nd time through the order and reduce his BB/9, but neither of those need to be done this year… he was called up as a complete emergency, far from ready, and held his own better than one could expect based on where he was on his development process.
Maybe his “I’m a ML starter for good” year is 2026, not 2025, but i don’t think there’s anything he can do on those last 3 starts will be enough for us to know it for good. I think he’s 100% a starter, don’t see him as just a bullpen arm at all, but with just ~80 innings between AA and AAA in his life, maybe he does need an extra half season or so fine tuning at AAA.