A good couple weeks!

YOU, THE SAVVY READER: Where's the asterisk? I know you have an asterisk somewhere.

When the Giants beat the Dodgers, it wasn’t quite a consolation prize, but we weren’t exactly feeling good about the team. One win in six tries against your rival isn’t something you brag about. When they then swept the Rockies, it was nice, but you could also handwave it away. I mean, they’re the Rockies. The Colorado Rockies, of baseball. It’s not that hard to beat them, even if you’re the Giants.

Then they won two out of three against the Pirates, coming back from late, large deficits in both of their wins, and suddenly we all had to admit that Something was Happening. Then they took two out of three from the Mets, and sure, they were both the Mets and in an unusually bad tailspin even for said Mets, but the most Bad Giants thing the Giants could have done was to pull them out of the tailspin, and that didn’t happen (and, as anyone who paid attention yesterday knows, the tailspin only got spinnier).

Well, okay, but what happens when they play an actual good team? Like in the coming homestand against the Phillies and Yankees, the two best teams in baseball? What happens then?

Well, the Giants won two out of three, taking Blake Snell’s start, and then the bullpen game against Zack Wheeler, one of the best pitchers in baseball, before falling 6-1 yesterday. But that’s a pretty good series!

So, with the team sitting one game above .500, we have to ask the question: Could the Giants actually be…good?

I know, I know, I’m cursing them just by bringing it up. I am aware of the Laws Of Sports Fandom, and the mere fact of my noticing that the Giants might be good, and then pointing it out in public, is enough to send them spiraling. I understand jinxes and regret my part in all of this, but also the Content Mines are a cold and demanding place, and if I am to earn my place in them, sacrifices must be made.

So how have they done it? Now, the last time I did an overview of the team, around a month ago, I concluded that they weren’t particularly good at anything, which is an issue when you play a sport in which your success depends on your being better than most other teams at most things.

How about now? What’s different at the end of May compared to the end of April? Well, suddenly the Giants have found things that they’re good at! After being mired in mediocrity for the first month and a half of the year, the Giants’ bats have come alive over the last couple weeks. Luis Matos and Heliot Ramos have led the way, but the continued success of LaMonte Wade Jr (get better soon, buddy!) and the emergence of Matt Chapman as a Matt Chapman-like player have turned things around. In the first half of May, the Giants had the 19th ranked offense in baseball. Since the 16th, they’re third.

But it’s not just the hitters. While Fangraphs doesn’t like the job the Giants starters have done this month — Blake Snell, Mason Black, and Keaton Winn were all pretty bad across multiple starts, and Kyle Harrison’s month wasn’t anything special either — the bullpen has been fantastic. They’ve pitched by far the most innings of any bullpen — 16 more than the second place team, the A’s — with a combined 3.47 ERA and excellent strikeout numbers and great overall peripherals.

And it’s not like there have been any stragglers in there that the team has to hide long term. Just about everyone is pulling his weight. Ryan Walker, Randy Rodriguez, and Taylor Rogers have all been superb. Tyler Rogers, Luke Jackson, and Camilo Doval have all been excellent aside from one hiccup each (in the case of Jackson and Doval, it was the same hiccup, that first game against the Pirates where they blew a 4-run ninth inning lead). Maybe most importantly, Sean Hjelle has been a revelation. He’s striking tons of guys out, not issuing walks, and using the downward tilt from that 6’11” frame to get tons of ground balls. The only regular reliever who significantly outperformed his peripherals was Erik Miller, who managed to keep his high walk and home run totals from biting him too hard.

Now that we’ve spend three whole paragraphs praising the Giants for being good with untempered enthusiasm, let’s temper it a bit. Because while the offense might be able to maintain something like this performance if they can stay healthy — certainly no guarantees there — I have my doubts about the bullpen. It’s not a talent issue, but a usage one. I don’t have a lot of confidence in a modern reliever, whose success hinges on him throwing in the mid-upper 90s, maintaining that velocity into September when he’s at 100 innings.

Take last year, for example. In March and April (they only played one game in March, so the months are generally combined), the Giants bullpen had an ERA of 6.15 and a FIP of 4.94. Pretty bad! They rebounded in May, though, with an ERA of 2.52 and a FIP of 3.32. Pretty good! In June, they continued their success: 2.65 ERA/2.88 FIP. They slipped a bit in July, but were still one of the best bullpens: 3.67/3.65. Then in August, they got much worse: 4.36/4.47. And in September, the FIP recovered, but the ERA didn’t: 4.40/3.65.

The 2023 Giants bullpen pitched the most innings in baseball. They threw 24 more innings than the next nearest team (the A’s again) and 47 more innings than the next nearest team that was above replacement level (the Rays). They absolutely wore down as the season progressed. If you remember last year, Doval especially got ground into dust at the beginning of August and never really recovered, but it was a whole bullpen thing.

And if the Giants don’t get more, and better, innings out of their rotation this year (not you, Logan, you’re cool), then they’re setting themselves up for the same thing to happen again. It’s understandable to want to pitch more bullpen innings, because bullpen innings are better at preventing runs in the short term than starter innings. But in the long term, it hurts the team. Over the course of a season, a reliever’s arm will accumulate either wear or rest. It’s not that any of the individual decisions were bad, but Doval pitching 5 out of 7 days against the Rockies, Pirates, and Mets will absolutely take a toll down the road.

The way to avoid this, not necessarily for Doval but for Ryan Walker and the rest of the guys, is for the starters to go deeper in games. But it’s tough to see how that will happen. Webb is already doing great, so no complaints there. Harrison and Jordan Hicks are on soft inning limits, so the team is understandably hesitant to let them go too many innings. Blake Snell, even when he’s good, goes 6 innings on his better days. Mason Black, whenever he’s up, isn’t likely to pitch deep into a game, and Keaton Winn, whenever he’s healthy, can, but has been inconsistent this year.

When Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray return from their injuries, it’s possible they’ll just be allowed to go as deep as possible, but you have to think both will have at least some kid gloves, considering how long they’ve been out and how tough their rehabs have been. But the Giants are going to have to make a choice at some point. Because their current strategy probably won’t work in September. For a team that spent a lot of money this offseason in the hopes of playing into October, they’ll have to figure it out.