Do you remember how easy it was to get excited about Jaylin Davis? He had already been crushing the ball for the Twins’ AAA team when he came over to the Giants, and he just kept on keeping on in Sacramento, hitting 10 homers in just 117 plate appearances. The Giants had found something. This was gonna be good. Oh boy! Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy.
And then came the rest of Jaylin Davis’s time with the Giants.
He was, of course, much less good in the majors than he had been in Sacramento, and this caused much consternation. But before that, were there hints that his prospect star might not have been shining quite so brightly as we thought?
Well, yes. His ground ball rate was always too high, and his career had been pretty middling before 2019. But the one that I couldn’t help focusing on was this:
Of Jaylin Davis’s 10 homers with the River Cats that year, 6 of them came in one series in Reno.
I am not casting aspersions on the Reno Aces’ ballpark, which I have been to and enjoyed, when I say that that park is what happens when someone visits Coors Field and says, “You know, it could be more moonlike.” The ball flies there. The ball soars. I don’t want to say it’s easy to hit a home run there, because it is never easy to hit a home run, but of every ballpark in affiliated baseball, Reno has to be one of the five easiest to homer in.
So yes, Jaylin Davis hit 10 homers in 117 plate appearances for the River Cats in 2019. Yes, that is something that it is normal to get excited about. But when you looked at the numbers, it was reasonable to be skeptical. He hit how many at altitude (7, including the one he hit in Albuquerque)? His ground ball percentage was what (40.3%)? He homered on what percentage of his fly balls (43.5%, actually down from his even less sustainable 53.6% with Minnesota’s AAA team)? How much of that performance was even real?
Anyway, let’s talk about David Villar.
David Villar, infield prospect on the Sacramento River Cats, is currently hitting .293/.402/.622. In 97 plate appearances, he’s hit 8 homers. Last year, in what everyone called a breakout year for him, Villar hit ..275/.374/.506 across 446 plate appearances in Richmond. This year, he’s been better. It’s been a breakoutier year, if that’s possible, and no one tell me if it’s not.
But on the other hand…
Now, I don’t want to say Villar has been bad in the games he’s played at sea level, because he hasn’t. At home, he’s hit .250/.386/.444, which is a perfectly respectable batting line. He’s hit a couple homers and a double, and has shown good plate discipline, with 8 walks in 44 plate appearances. He hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s done a nice job.
On the road, he’s been incandescent. Away from the friendly confines of Sutter Health Park, Villar’s hit .326/415/.761 with 6 homers in 53 plate appearances. And where have those road games been? Reno and Albuquerque. And how often is he hitting ground balls? 37.7% of the time. And, just for funsies, what percentage of David Villar’s fly balls are leaving the park? 44.4%.
None of this is to say that David Villar is destined to be overhyped, underdeliver, get DFA’d in a few years, and then be claimed by the Red Sox. But as he keeps hitting homer after homer in hitter’s paradises, it is worth considering what exactly those homers are worth and how we should evaluate him. And it might not be fair to say they’re worth less, but I think it could be more accurate.
When I watched Jaylin Davis play in Sacramento in 2019, I wasn’t that impressed. Lotta ground balls for a power hitter, I thought, and then looked up the stats and found that was true. When I’ve seen David Villar in Sacramento this year, I’ve felt similarly. I expect something about him to jump out, be exciting, announce itself, and it just doesn’t happen. Maybe I’ve just been to the wrong games. But I haven’t seen a great approach, and I haven’t seen great contact. I’ve seen a lot of decently but unspectacularly hit ground balls within the first couple pitches of the at bat.
Am I being too negative about David Villar? Yes, absolutely I am. We’re less than a month into the minor league season and my entire tone here is way too dismissive. He can get better. He’s been in AAA for a month and I should not jump to conclusions about how he will inevitably disappoint me down the road (Although: MEN, AM I RIGHT???). And I don’t think I’ve implied that he’s a finished product, but if I have, then I am wrong and he isn’t. I am not going to see a good month, think “Well, it’s not good in the way I want it to be good,” and give up on a guy.
But I’m also not going to treat him like something he isn’t. If I’m going to get excited about his year, I want to see consistency between his road production and his home production, and I want to see a solid approach no matter where and when he’s hitting, and I want to see it in person at some point. None of that has happened yet. I don’t think Villar is in any danger of this, but I’ll remind you: Jaylin Davis was called up to the majors after just a bit more time with Sacramento than Villar has had.
Now, that was a different situation. The team was worse, and Davis had had 150 additional AAA PAs with Minnesota’s team in Rochester, and the Giants were in a position to see what would happen with very little downside. But I think it’s important to remember that David Villar shouldn’t be done yet. He has more to learn, and it will be good for him to learn it in the minors.
I hope Villar ends up having a better career than Davis. I think it’s pretty likely. But we can’t immediately start dreaming on him. In a lot of ways, he’s had a very impressive start to his AAA career. In some other ways, he hasn’t. Those other ways have already been the pitfall for one Giant. Let’s hope the team is working to keep history from repeating itself.