Blake Sabol's great spring might not mean that much
At some point, I'll write about something less buzzkilly. I hope.
If you can make a major league roster halfway through March, Blake Sabol has done it. Over the offseason, the Giants acquired Sabol from the Reds, who had just selected him from the Pirates in the Rule 5 draft. He started hitting at the beginning of Spring Training, has kept hitting ever since, and currently sports a line of .476/.586/1.048 in 21 ABs (29 plate appearances).
No, that’s not a typo. Unless I accidentally made a typo and didn’t catch it, which, like, 30% chance, tops.
Yes, the sample is absurdly small, and it mostly hasn’t come against major league competition — according to Baseball Reference, the average pitcher Sabol has faced this spring has been a AA guy. But you know who else has faced that kind of competition? Everyone. Christian Arroyo. Mark Canha. George Springer. Everybody. And do you know who has had more PAs this spring with a better OPS than Sabol? No one. Absolutely no one.
Ordinarily, the Giants would be able to send Sabol down to the minors to see if the gains he’s made are real. Sure, you might lose a couple weeks of strong production if he is half as good as he seems, but if it’s a flash in the pan, well, better to find that out in Sacramento. But since Sabol was a Rule 5 pick, the Giants would have to offer him back to the Pirates, who would certainly take him. For Sabol and the Giants, then, it’s major league roster or bust.
And for all the caveats you could and should throw at his performance this spring (for these caveats, see paragraph 3), he has done well enough that you have to think the answer will be major league roster. He’s simply done too much with the bat, and with his positional versatility — have I mentioned yet that he plays every outfield position and also catcher? Seems relevant — the upside for the Giants is that they get exactly the kind of player they like. They get another outfielder, and they get another backup catcher, which means they’ll be able to pinch hit for their catcher whenever it’s necessary.
Think of the platoon advantages that come into play with a third catcher on the roster. The matchups Gabe Kapler could play. Why, they’d be fools not to have a third catcher! How have they not had a third catcher all along? What if the real third catcher was the friends we made along the way? Lot to think about.
Now, we do run into the moderately important question of, will this work? Is Blake Sabol actually a major league quality baseball player? On the pro side: 29 fantastic plate appearances in Spring Training, and a nice minor league resume over the last couple years. On the con side: he hasn’t done it yet and you shouldn’t just assume that someone can.
You know who else did a nice job in the minors and Spring Training? Joey Bart. He has a career .822 OPS in AAA, and last year in Spring Training he hit .364/.440/.818. The year before in the spring, he hit .423/.464/.692. 2020, before the shutdown? .438/.526/.875. In the majors, he, uh, has not yet done that.
(For the record, during the current Spring Training, Joey Bart is hitting .308/.357/.692, which isn’t exactly Brian Bocock territory)
So I think we should temper our Blake Sabol enthusiasm a bit, because like many a political reporter with a hidden agenda, I’m just asking questions. Will his swing play at Oracle Park? Oh, I have no idea. Will he maintain his extremely strong spring through a long, grueling rookie season when he only has 101 plate appearances above AA? I mean, I’m not saying no, but what are the odds of that? Is it really appropriate to crown his ass? The important thing is that we have the freedom to have these conversations.
Blake Sabol might be a good player this year, or at least a good enough player that he sticks around the organization for multiple years. He also might be a Pirate again in a month’s time. The Giants have seen Rule 5 picks not work out in recent years. They had to give up on Connor Joe, and Travis Bergen, and Dany Jimenez. If Sabol joins that list, well, it happens. The dream of Blake Sabol is a nice one, but not all dreams can come true.
Considering the team’s uncertainty at catcher, it would be nice to have more options. It would be great if Bart finally had his breakout season, or Roberto Perez replicated his 2019. It would be great if Sabol forced his way into the starting role (not for Joey Bart, admittedly). But we can’t assume those things will happen just because we want them to. Blake Sabol has had a great spring so far, but great springs don’t necessarily lead to great summers, as much as we might want them to.
Hmm. It seems like other teams are giving young players a chance and have had a LOT of success!!