The #2 seed Dodgers are out of the playoffs (hold for applause). The top-seed Braves are on the ropes, and will have to win two in a row to move on to the next round. The top-seed Orioles are out of the playoffs. Of the teams in the divisional round who came in with a bye and home-field advantage, only the Astros have advanced to the next round, and while it’s possible the Braves will join them, right now the odds aren’t in their favor.
There is only one possible conclusion: This is wildly unfair to the precious Top Seeds, and how dare they?
Ken Rosenthal went through the arguments on The Athletic on Monday, but he’s not the only one to bring this up. Bob Costas, in particular, has been vocal about how this playoff format is unfair to the better teams. There are others, but you don’t need me to name names, right? Like, you’ve seen people talking about this, and not just Dodgers fans coping with another NLDS loss by getting mad about the rules, right?
Okay, great. Less exposition for me to give. Outstanding.
The argument is this: Good teams should be winning more often than less good teams. The good teams are not winning more often, and it’s because they’re playing in this playoff format. Ipso, meet facto.
And yet, this Point A to Point B logic train might be a little less direct than it appears. Because, of course, what can you really tell from cherry picking three short series out of four? Not much! Setting aside that the Braves have not actually lost their series yet, an underdog winning multiple series is not an unexpected result.
A 5-game series isn’t exactly a coinflip, but it’s a whole lot closer to one than to a stone-cold lock. Then add in that, on paper, the Rangers and their impressive lineup were probably a better team than the Orioles, whose biggest strength, their bullpen, was neutered by losing their dominant closer, Felix Bautista, to Tommy John surgery. I don’t think that series even counts as an upset, season records be damned.
So really, when it comes down to it, the problem is that the fearsome Braves and the mighty Dodgers underachieved in October, and now we all have to figure out a way for that to not happen. Let’s ignore that the Braves and Dodgers are the two franchises most known for choking in the playoffs, so there’s plenty of historical precedent, even before the current format. Let’s ignore that the Dodgers rotation was a paper tiger, and that the Phillies’ top-heavy pitching staff is built for October. Let’s just grant, for argument’s sake, that the current playoff format may have reduced the higher seeded team’s advantage in the Division Series round.
So what?
The point of the playoffs is that it’s two really good teams playing against each other. Your reward for having a better record is that you get more home games, and after that, good luck. It’s hard to win. It’s supposed to be hard to win. It’s a feature, not a big travesty.
The entire idea of having playoffs is that it is possible for the lower seeded team to win. It may be downright plausible, even! To see the Dodgers lose to the Diamondbacks and then say, “This is a problem and the solution is to make it harder for the Diamondbacks to win,” completely misses the point of playoffs. Anyone can win. Anyone can win!
If you have a series where one team shouldn’t be able to win, then you don’t have playoffs; you have a coronation. If what you want is for the two best teams to face each other in the NLCS, then get rid of the Division Series altogether and put them there. If, instead, you want the lucrative TV money from having more playoff games, then you have to accept the trade-off that sometimes, the better team will lose. Without the chance of that happening, it is not worth playing playoff games. With the chance of that happening, you will get big ole whines like we’re seeing right now.
And again, to think this is a problem with the current playoff format displays a stunning lack of awareness of recentish baseball history. The Braves very famously — like, incredibly famously, could not be more famous — won 14 straight division titles and only won one World Series. This happened because they lost all the time in the playoffs. And this was under the old format! The Dodgers have been in the playoffs every year since 2013 and have won exactly one World Series in that timeframe. Most of those years came before the current format, and there were multiple Division Series losses in that mix.
It happens. It’s not the format. It’s not the off days that higher seeds get. It’s not an insufficient home field advantage. It’s baseball. It’s literally just baseball. The randomness is what makes the postseason so interesting. It’s what makes the sport so interesting. You can’t get rid of it.
Well, you can, but you’ll be getting rid of something essential in baseball. Which might be on the table for Rob Manfred, but no one else should be carrying his water here.
"The Braves very famously — like, incredibly famously, could not be more famous — won 14 straight division titles and only won one World Series. This happened because they lost all the time in the playoffs. And this was under the old format! The Dodgers have been in the playoffs every year since 2013 and have won exactly one World Series in that timeframe."
Maestro - would it be cheesy to point out that 'that timeframe' included the Pandemic, and the Dogers won a PeeWee World Series?
It would?? My bad.
"The point of the playoffs is that it’s two really good teams playing against each other."
I am sure this sentence is false.
"If what you want is for the two best teams to face each other in the NLCS, then get rid of the Division Series altogether and put them there."
Yes, please. My favorite "format" is still the old old format with division winners and 7-game series. East versus West. Then, National versus American. Mighty Friend versus Mighty Foe. Godzilla versus King Kong. Settle the division winners in the season. Make 'em win something to make the playoffs. Wild cards are stupid. More wild cards are more stupid.
But, this will never happen because ...
"If, instead, you want the lucrative TV money from having more playoff games..."
/sad face emoji