I am back on my Spring Training Bullshit (thinking that Spring Training matters)
Sorry, but I just can't help myself
I literally do this every year and I will never learn.
The Giants have played games in Arizona this spring, and the games don’t count. The games have never counted and will never count, and since this is the entire purpose of Spring Training, it will never change. I know this intellectually. I could not be more aware of it. There is absolutely no chance that I will ever be more convinced of this undeniable fact than I am right now.
But also, why the hell has Logan Webb been giving up so many hits???
You see the dilemma here. On the one hand, there is the incontrovertible fact that a small sample size is irrelevant, especially for a player who has not completely gotten into game shape yet, and therefore the results are absolutely not predictive. On the other hand, look at how bad he’s been Logan Webb should be good he has to be good this team is desperate for him to be good that rotation is already going to be so shaky in April we can’t afford any setbacks right now.
And so I find myself reacting, which means I find myself overreacting. Now, to be clear, Logan Webb has given up way too many hits and runs so far this spring. In 11.2 innings, he’s allowed 13 runs and 22 hits (which makes for an ERA of 10.03 and a H/9 of 17.0), which are both hideous figures. In his last start, Webb went 3.1 innings against the Royals and gave up 9 hits and 7 runs (though only 5 earned). These numbers are bad.
They are also a stark contrast to his usual spring stats, which generally come in around a 4.50 or 5.00 ERA (though one year it was below 1). And so, panic. Never mind my full knowledge of the lack of importance of these innings. Never mind that in 2018, Dereck Rodriguez had a similar spring, with an ERA of 9 and a H/9 of 16.5. Rodriguez then, as you’ll recall, went on to have the best season of his career. In 2019, the spring version of Madison Bumgarner had an ERA of 8.27 and gave up 15.24 hits per nine innings, and he went on to have a very nice year.
So there is plenty of precedent for Logan Webb being Actually Fine, even if it feels like the end of the world because he can’t seem to have a good start (also, his strikeout, walk, and home run numbers are all exactly in line with what he did last season, but I implore you not to bring logic into this). So there’s no problem. He’s fine. He’s great. Probably in the best shape of his life. There are no issues with Webb.
But also, what if there are?
As I alluded to in my italicized section above, the Giants desperately, desperately need Webb to immediately be 2023 Cy Young Runner-Up Logan Webb until the reinforcements for the rotation arrive. Their starting staff is Webb, Kyle Harrison (pitched less than 5 innings per start in his 7 big league starts last year), Jordan Hicks (has never successfully been a starter in the majors), Keaton Winn (who is several weeks behind the rest of the team due to injury), and Question Mark (sans the Mysterians).
Every one of those guys could flame out spectacularly, and the Giants don’t have a strong backup plan. So Webb’s struggles get magnified because you know who’s the one guy who has to be great immediately or else the team is in a ton of trouble? Why, that would be Logan Webb. Of course, then, the fact that he has not yet looked good is raising alarm bells. Just because it doesn’t make sense doesn’t mean it doesn’t make sense.
But while Webb’s is certainly the most notable Giants performance in camp, it’s not like he’s alone here. Joey Bart, for the fourth time in five Spring Trainings, is tearing the cover off the ball. David Villar is doing a great job. Nick Ahmed probably took the starting shortstop job from Marco Luciano despite not being a good hitter (this is not necessarily the wrong decision — the jury is certainly still out on whether Luciano will be a good hitter this year too). From what the beat writers are insinuating, Juan Sanchez has the inside track on a bullpen spot as the team’s second lefty.
I don’t trust a single one of those results to carry over. I don’t trust Bart or Villar or Ahmed — sorry, Joey, David, and Nick — to see this carry over into April. I don’t think Mike Yastrzemski will be a .125 hitter this year, and I don’t think that Ismael Munguia will hit .563. I’m not particularly invested in any of those outcomes because I think they’re so wildly improbable that they’re not worth considering.
But when it comes to Logan Webb? Here I am, just considering away like a good little boy. Maybe someday, a robot will come along and consider better than I ever could, but for now, I have irrational panic to wallow in. What if this thing that won’t happen happens? Wouldn’t that be bad? Let’s spend a while on that topic.
As is clear by now, I know that this is not a good way to think about baseball. Yes, the first step is admitting you have a problem, but I never seem to get to Step 2. There’s always someone to stress you out, or have a hamstring tweak, and it’s hard to break out of those mental chains. No, it doesn’t actually matter. But how can you be sure, in the presence of so many bad games from the guy personally holding the starting staff together?
What if you’re wrong, and it does matter? That’s an extra month you could have spent being worried and complaining! Think of all the good that would do. Yes, it’s better to be this way. The consequences of getting this one wrong would just be too great.