It is possible that Anthony DeSclafani did not fix his mechanics in Sacramento
It is with great regret that I inform you...
Let’s go back to 2016. No, not for anything trivial like saving the country from the dark, racist, nationalistic forces that have since consumed it, creating a cult of personality around someone whose toxic narcissism has spread through the country like a cancer. No, we’re going to go back to do something much more important: remember Matt Cain’s season.
Matt Cain had been bad in 2016. He had been bad in 2015, when he wasn’t injured. He was okay in 2014, when he wasn’t injured, and he was okay in 2013. But in 2016, he was hurt. He pitched 1.2 scoreless innings in Coors on May 27, went on the DL with a hamstring sprain, came back on June 13 against the Brewers, pitched 3.2 innings, and went right back on the DL. At the time, his ERA was 5.34, though his FIP (4.58) and his xFIP (4.88) both suggested he was, at least, somewhat better than that.
Cain spent time in the minors, making four rehab starts. When he came back, he got shelled by the Red Sox, then he got shelled by the Reds, then he had two good starts against the Nationals, then he got shelled by the Orioles, then shelled by the Pirates, and then he was out of the rotation. Dang it! This is the exact opposite of what I want to see from Matt Cain! He is a pure and good soul who deserves nothing but success, but that’s not success at all!
But I want to focus on those four rehab starts. The first was in Rookie Ball, where he struck a bunch of guys out, and gave up a couple runs in 3.1 innings. The second was in Sacramento, where he pitched 5.2 solid innings against the Tacoma Rainiers, giving up 2 runs, striking out 2, and walking two. The third was in Lancaster for the then-Hi A San Jose Giants, and Cain got blasted to hell, giving up 9 runs on 10 hits in 4 innings. The fourth was in Fresno for the River Cats, where in 5 innings he gave up 6 runs (4 earned), struck out 4, and walked 2.
Then he went out and got shelled by the Red Sox! When I put it like that, it seems kinda predictable, doesn’t it? Well, it was predictable, and it got even more predictable with six years of hindsight.
The company line at the time was that the team didn’t care. Cain was just getting work in, rebuilding arm strength, and the results were irrelevant. If you remember the old Cal League, you’ll remember that Lancaster and High Desert were absolute abominations of ballparks, just complete jokes where hitting numbers didn’t mean anything when it came to true talent level and there was no real reason to scout the boxscore. Guys gave up runs there by the truckload. It happened, no big deal.
But when I looked at Cain’s numbers in 2016, I thought, he should just be better. He’s three levels below the majors and even with extremely favorable conditions for hitters, he should still be able to dominate them. It worried me that he couldn’t. It should have worried me that he couldn’t.
Which brings us, eventually, to Anthony DeSclafani.
DeSclafani hasn’t been as bad on his rehab assignment as Cain was. His first start was good, 3 scoreless innings with 3 strikeouts, no walks, and 3 hits allowed. His second was bad, 2.2 innings allowing 4 runs (3 earned), 5 hits, and he struck out 2 and walked 3. I mean, maybe that’s no big deal. Sometimes guys just have bad starts, right? Why worry?
But there I go, making excuses, and I’m about to make more. Three of the hits were infield hits. After the first two runs scored, DeSclafani got out of a two on, no out situation without allowing another baserunner. He did good things.
But he didn’t do enough good things to have confidence in him. He walked three in less than three innings. He only struck out two. It took him 60 pitches to not even finish those three innings. Yes, you can make excuses for DeSclafani, but the guys who did damage against him included Kevin Padlo, Alex Blandino, and Justin Upton, none of whom would even sniff the 2022 Braves lineup. He should be better. He’s going to start against those Braves today, and he has to be better, or it’ll get ugly.
I have had a recurring bit lately where, whenever Jake McGee comes into a game, I say that I’m confident he’s good now because he fixed his mechanics in Sacramento. I mean, if Mike Krukow says it, who am I to question him?
But it’s also kind of true, which is why the bit has lasted. McGee did get injured, did pitch a few games for the River Cats, and did find something there that he’s brought back to the big leagues. You could see it in Sacramento, though. You could see him blowing hitters away with his fastball the way he did last year. You could see the command was back. You could see that he was good now, and perhaps that was because he had fixed his mechanics?
This is not the case with Anthony DeSclafani. He has had two starts, one good, one bad. He has not been dominant. He has not been a strikeout machine. He has not even thrown his 61st pitch in a game. He has done well against one minor league lineup and done poorly against another. None of this suggests that he is physically ready to face the Braves tomorrow.
Baseball is funny, though. Maybe baseball will gather all its energy tomorrow to make me look stupid, with DeSclafani throwing 5 scoreless, easily mowing down a fearsome Atlanta lineup. Or maybe that, uh, won’t be the result. Maybe baseball will do the logical thing and allow DeSclafani to get shelled. Maybe we’ll hear excuses from the broadcast booth, similar to the ones I gave you above. Maybe after the game they’ll say, “The most important thing is that he felt good out there and can work himself back up to where he was in 2021.”
There are a lot of maybes, is my point. Not a lot of certainty with DeSclafani tomorrow. It seems likely that his start won’t be very good, and that the team is maybe more desperate to get him back than they are indicating. They perhaps see a much more acute need to avoid a bullpen game than we do. Or they see good TrackMan data on his two minor league starts and figure he’ll be fine.
We’ll find out today if the Giants have some secret sauce that they’re relying on to decide to promote Anthony DeSclafani back to the majors before it seems that he’s ready. Let’s hope that they do, because otherwise, today’s going to be a long game.