Hey, remember when the Giants were winning World Series and whatnot? I liked the whatnot, but the World Series were better, I think, and they were won on the back of the team’s starting pitching. Why, I wrote a whole thing about the man more responsible for developing that pitching than anyone else in the organization.
Anyway, you remember that, right? Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, who all came up through the minors, and were all vital pieces of championship puzzles. That was cool.
2021 Logan Webb is the best starting pitcher developed by the Giants since Madison Bumgarner.
This isn’t a statement about Webb. It also isn’t not a statement about Webb, who’s having a nice year, but has only thrown 78 innings so far. It’s a statement about the absolute failure of the Giants organization to develop starting pitchers since Inception was electrifying moviegoers everywhere. Now we barely even have moviegoers! Man, how things change.
At this point, you might well know the list of best Giants farm product seasons since 2010 by heart: 2015 Chris Heston (1.3 fWAR), 2017 Ty Blach (1.3 fWAR), 2018 Andrew Suarez (1.2 fWAR), 2018 Chris Stratton (1.0 fWAR), 2020 Logan Webb (0.7 fWAR, though in just 48 innings in the 60-game season). As fun as it was to watch Heston’s no-hitter, or see the Dodgers fall prey to Blach, it is not an inspiring list.
After throwing just those 78 innings, 2021 Logan Webb is already on top of said list. He’s at a 1.6 fWAR coming into tonight’s start, and while that is very good, let’s remember that WAR can also go down as well as up. Back in 2015, Heston peaked at 2.0 fWAR after his August 1 start, but his last 10 appearances of the season went so badly that it all came crashing down. It’s entirely possible that happens with Webb this year, if only because it’s tough for a starter to maintain his performance while doubling (or more) the previous year’s innings total.
But at least for now, Webb has the title and he’s certainly looked great getting there. In 27 second half innings, which he started accumulating while working his way back from an IL stint for a shoulder strain, he’s had a 2.33 ERA with a monster 61.6% ground ball rate. Most importantly, he’s done it while Kevin Gausman and Anthony DeSclafani struggled, and in the face of massive inconsistency from Alex Wood and Johnny Cueto. Most impressively, his 5 post-break starts have come against 4 first place teams, including 2 with nigh-unstoppable offenses (The Brewers, the Astros, and 2 against the Dodgers) and one St. Louis Cardinals team that refuses to make outs against the Giants.
Since the All-Star Break, Logan Webb has done his best to establish himself as the Farm Product Curse Breaker. It’s not an exaggeration to say that right now, the team’s hopes of staying in first place depend on him. He has certainly looked the part this season, with a sparkling ERA, a FIP that’s just about as good and an xFIP that’s even a little better than that. Baseball Prospectus’s DRA- has Webb, on a rate basis, just as good as Michael Kopech and Shohei Ohtani (pitching only), and better than Walker Buehler.
Dude’s been good, in other words.
The only questions now are whether Webb can keep this performance up through September and whether he can do it again next year. One doesn’t guarantee or preclude the other; he could tire as the calendar turns into September, or he could come back in 2022 without the same magic he’s showed in 2021.
For now, though, even considering the time he’s missed due to injury, Logan Webb is having a very strong year. It’s been a long time since we could say that in mid-August about any pitcher the Giants developed. Let’s hope that Webb is the first of many this decade.