Let's talk about one Joseph E. Bart
Is that his actual name? Look, let's not get bogged down in technicalities.
Joey Bart homered yesterday in a Cactus League game that we all absolutely have to remember does not mean a thing. I mean, even if you want it to mean something, if you yearn for a Spring Training home run to mean that Joey Bart is indeed Buster Posey 2: The Secret of the Ooze, you know that it was just one dinger in an early spring game that has no correlation to anything.
But we are desperate for signs, aren’t we? Since Bart is likely to be the starting catcher this year — Farhan Zaidi has said that he and Curt Casali could split time if Bart falters, but that is certainly not Plan A — it would be nice to know what to expect from him.
Bart was drafted second overall in 2018, with stories of his raw power echoing down through the ages. And the stories weren’t wrong; in 203 plate appearances in Augusta in 2018, he hit 13 homers, and then the next year in 338 plate apperances spread across San Jose and Richmond, he hit 16. Sure, he kept missing time with injuries, but when he was on the field, he was good. I saw Bart play one game with the Baby Giants in 2019, and while there was some swing and miss in his game, he still came off like a man among boys.
Then 2020 came, and Bart got 111 major league plate appearances, hitting 0 home runs and striking out 37% of the time. It’s sad, because he was so close to really making it: all he had to do was hit 37 home runs and strike out 0% of the time. Probably some wires got crossed or something. It happens.
While 2020 was the confirmation that Bart was not going to be a modern day Terrell Lowery, it was also understandable. He’d had just 87 plate appearances at AA before getting called up. Everyone knew he wasn’t ready. And we were in the middle of a pandemic, for crying out loud! Man, good thing that’s over.
Then 2021 rolled around, and it was uninspiring. Now, usually if I call a baseball player’s season uninspiring, that’s a codeword for shitty, but in this case it was, basically, fine. In 279 plate appearances, Bart hit .294/.358/.472, which seems very impressive on the surface, but in the massively hitter-friendly PCL was just 7% over league average.
Perhaps you are saying, “7% over league average seems pretty good! You should be happy with that!” The thing is…it’s not. The major leagues are much, much harder than AAA. To find a guy who will succeed in the majors, you need to find someone who’s more than 7% better than the average guy in AAA.
For example, do you remember Jason Vosler last year? Hit some homers, but otherwise wasn’t particularly impressive in the majors? He was 25% better than league average in AAA. Mauricio Dubon? 30% better. Now, those are different players with different skill sets and Bart’s power could certainly make a difference where Vosler’s and Dubon’s wouldn’t, but just remember: they were fantastic in Sacramento and were not super effective in San Francisco. Joey Bart was less than fantastic in Sacramento. It is entirely possible that there will be growing pains this year in San Francisco.
Now, that’s not to say that it’s entirely hopeless either. Bart has had two years of growing, development, and putting on muscle since 2020. He’s had intensive coaching focused just on him for a while now. It’s possible that he makes us…well, not forget Buster Posey, but maybe miss him 3% less? That would be enough for Joey Bart to have a successful season.
That’s still a lot to expect, though. From all reports, Bart has been progressing very well on the defensive side, which will help compensate for any offensive shortcomings But the whole idea of Mr. Plus-Plus Raw Power is that the dingers compensate for the copious swing-and-miss in his game.
Without the dingers, or with moderate to low dingers, Bart’s value becomes reliant on his defense. The Giants don’t want that for many reasons, but one of the most pertinent is that Bart needs to be one of the team’s main threats against lefties. Their lineup lost some right-handed pop (and didn’t sign any more), so they need the guys they do have to step up.
Those guys include Joey Bart. Joey Bart, in fact, is a main focus of those guys. Bart can still be the future of the team if he steps up. There’s no evidence that says he can’t. But he still needs to give Giants fans an ironclad reason to think he will.