On Kevin Gausman taking the qualifying offer
I mean, I would take a 1-year $18.9 million contract to do my job too. Think it over, Powers That Be.
All right. Baseball. Time to talk about baseball again here in my baseball newsletter. I will do my best to keep this up, though it might get difficult if the COVID explosion continues apace or if the Republican efforts to coup their way into retaining the presidency ramp up to “Not just humoring Donald Trump so he doesn’t tweet mean things about us” levels. Don’t you dare, Republicans! I know you want to hear some thoughts about Kevin Gausman!
Now that that’s settled, here are some thoughts about Kevin Gausman.
It seemed like a risk for the Giants to extend Gausman the qualifying offer this offseason, in that the entire industry has been molting front office jobs in order to pinch pennies — the Giants absolutely not being an exception — and the team just turned around and said, “Hey, would you like $19 million thanks just let us know.” Gausman is coming off a very nice season, but it was a shortened season and there’s no way to know how things will play out over a full 162 games. He’s also been inconsistent over his major league career, with ERA that ping back and forth between 3 point something and 4 or 5 point something. He is not a sure thing.
On the other hand, the Giants are desperate for pitching. Fangraphs had the 2020 Giants as the 23rd ranked pitching staff in the majors, which seemed high to me until I realized that I barely watched the Mariners, so if numbers say their pitchers were worth a tenth of a win less than the Giants’ pitchers, well, so be it. The team absolutely could not afford to lose Gausman, who was their ace last year, if they had any hope of being watchable on the mound in 2021.
It’s a risk for Gausman too, though. Taking the qualifying offer means that he can only negotiate with one team — the Giants — and if they don’t want to sign him to a long-term contract, then he’ll see the market again this time next year. Ideally, if you’re a pitcher, you want to cash in after your best season with a multi-year deal that lasts a long time and pays you a lot of money. That’s not absolutely impossible for Gausman now, but it’s a lot less likely since the Giants can just use him next year and see what happens. Even if he has a nice-but-not-great year, that decision will likely cost him money.
On the other other hand, though, this is probably going to be a pretty depressed market for pitching. We’ve already discussed the COVID-related cutbacks a lot of teams are going through, and that will likely be used as an excuse for why teams aren’t spending so much on free agents this offseason. But also, the teams don’t really know what their financial position will be next year — again, thanks to COVID — and so they don’t want to spend a lot of money if they’re not sure how they’re going to earn it from the fans.
Also also, there’s likely to be a work stoppage of some kind after the 2021 season, so who knows how any of this will really work out? There are about 400 trillion variables here, so if Kevin Gausman wants to take his guaranteed nearly-$20-million, then it’s not like he’s going to be complaining later. That is actually quite a bit of money, this blog has learned. Why spurn that if it’s possible you won’t get anything better either now or in the future? Why not get your security while you can, rely on yourself to have another solid year, and then get paid again in the offseason?
These are the choices that players have to make right now, and it sure is hard to make the right one. I don’t envy them these choices, is something I could tell the world, lying my stupid little liar face off about it. Of course I envy them these choices. That is so much money either way! But there will be regret no matter how things play out — regret at making a bad choice, or being in a less-than-optimal situation, or just at not being better before hitting free agency the first time. If Kevin Gausman had been spectacular in 2019 with the Braves, after all, then he’d already have his overly expensive multi-year deal. Instead, he’s making do.
Again, he is making do with truckloads of money! That is a ton of cash! He is fine! But if I were in his place, I’d be thinking about how I could have been finer. Kevin Gausman had a big decision to make this week. He chose to stick around for one more year. Let’s hope that neither he nor the Giants comes to regret that decision.