I don’t mean to brag here, but I regularly receive promotional emails that I don’t care about. Often, when they’re baseball related, I glance at them, delete them, then immediately forget and carry on with my life as if it never happened. What can I say? I lead a glamorous life.
But occasionally, I get one and think, “I can turn this into content.” That applies to the Jackie Robinson book I got a month ago, and which I should probably finish reading and then write about at some point. It also applies to an email I got declaring the over/under line for specific stats for specific players.
For example, Giants legend Will Smith is likely to be the closer for Atlanta this year. You can bet on how many saves he’ll get. Since the line is set at 22.5, if you take the over, then at least 23 saves means you make money, and 22 or under means you lose money. Simple!
Now, I don’t really care about sports gambling, which to me seems like nothing more than a drawn out way to lose money. But I do care about predicting things, because predicting things is interesting. So now, I present to you the prop bets on Giants players, and whether I think the players will be OVER or UNDER their lines.
Caveat: Never, ever take betting advice from me. Ever. I am exceptionally bad at this. As you will no doubt find out in late September/early October/whenever I revisit this to see just how dumb I am.
Mike Yastrzemksi - Total HR's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 24.5
Mike Yastrzemksi - Total RBI's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 76.5
Last year, Yaz Junior hit 10 homers in 225 plate appearances, which is nearly a 30-homer pace over a full season (650 PAs, a number I arrived at after seeing one other person using it and figuring it was fine). The year before, he hit 21 homers in 411 PAs, which is a little better than a 30-homer pace. So he’s certainly capable of hitting 25 homers for the over.
The two questions for him are how the new ball will affect him (this will also be a question for everyone else) and whether the hand injury he suffered yesterday will cause him to miss time this year. The first will likely depress his homer totals a bit, while apparently the second isn’t a huge deal, since x-rays came back negative. But I think there’s enough uncertainty here that I’m going to take the UNDER on the dingers. I might look stupid! I would be the latest in a long list of people Mike Yastrzemski has made look stupid, and I would be very happy to be on that list.
Gonna take the OVER on the RBIs though. Again, he’s been on pace for more than 75 RBIs both years he’s been in the majors, and the slightly deadened ball shouldn’t affect too much.
Buster Posey - BA in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under .263
Buster Posey - Total HR's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 8.5
Buster Posey - Total RBI's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 45.5
OVER I’M PICKING OVER FOR ALL OF THEM YOU’LL PRY BUSTER POSEY OPTIMISM FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS
Ahem.
Posey opted out of the season last year, so we don’t have that performance to draw from. We do have his 2019, though, in which he hit .257 (that’s an under) with 7 homers (another under) and 38 RBIs (hitting the trifecta of unders). If you’re going to use Spring Training as a barometer — absolutely do not do this, he said, this is a terrible idea and will not help you, and anyway I’m about to do it here so that would be plagiarism — he hit .250 with 2 doubles and a bunch of walks. No homers. No RBIs.
On the other hand, people are raving about how much better he looks this year than he did in the last couple of springs. They wouldn’t just do that no matter what, right? Right?
(remembers literally anything that has ever happened in Spring Training)
Ah, well, alas.
When I first saw his totals, I was going to take the over on all of them. But I can’t justify it. If Posey has a slow start and Joey Bart looks good in Sacramento, then he’ll start to lose playing time, which in addition to his numbers already being weak, will make it even harder to reach 9 homers on the year. Unfortunately, I think I have to take the UNDER on all three, with batting average being the one I think is most likely to be wrong.
Brandon Belt - Total HR's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 19
Belt was on a good pace last year, but on the other hand, he’s never hit 19 homers in a major league season and he’s going to be 33 this year, and he didn’t really get much of a Spring Training because of offseason health issues so he’s only going to be kind of ready for Opening Day. Clear UNDER.
Evan Longoria - Total HR's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 17.5
Evan Longoria - Total RBI's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 62.5
Longoria had a great spring at the plate, which doesn’t matter at all. It did take a while for him to get reps in the field, so if there are any lingering issues there that would cause him to miss playing time, that’s where you’d find a reasonable argument to take the under. But I think he’ll heal fast enough, get plenty of playing time, and I’ll take the OVER on both.
Brandon Crawford - Total HR's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 13.5
Brandon Crawford - Total RBI's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 57.5
Crawford had a really nice 2020 at the plate, with his power numbers in particular standing out. But I don’t trust the power to come back like it did last year, so I’m taking the UNDER on homers. However, the Giants offense should be able to put a lot of ducks on the pond for him to drive in, so I’ll go OVER on RBIs.
Tommy La Stella - Total HR's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 11
Tommy La Stella - Total RBI's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 51.5
La Stella has had exactly one (1) good power season in his career, hitting 16 homers with the Angels in just 321 plate appearances in 2019. He was on a good pace in the shortened season last year, but is that enough to think he’ll homer 12 times this year, especially in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and with the new baseballs? I don’t think so, so that’s an UNDER.
La Stella is also likely to hit leadoff this year, which will limit his RBI chances, so that’s gonna have to be an UNDER too. Did you think it would be an over because I started a new paragraph? Well, it’s not.
Alex Dickerson - Total HR's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 18.5
Alex Dickerson - Total RBI's in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 62.5
Alex Dickerson is a good hitter and he would easily pass these marks if he played a full season, but I am absolutely not betting on him to stay healthy for an entire year. No way. UNDER.
Kevin Gausman - Total Wins in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 10
Kevin Gausman - Total Strikeouts in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 177.5
Kevin Gausman has reached 178 strikeouts in a season once, and that was in 2017, when he struck out…179 batters. He was a strikeout machine last year, and it’s entirely possible that he figured something out that he’ll use in 2021, continuing to make the league look silly. It’s also possible that in a normal season, hitters will catch on to him, or that being able to look at in-game video will help them out.
But on the other hand, he was legitimately extremely good last year. Maybe he did find something. Sometimes players find something, and it’s cool and fun if they’re not on the Dodgers. But honestly, I just have no idea what to expect from Kevin Gausman. Yes, he had a 2.51 ERA over his last 28.2 innings and looked great doing it. But back in 2004, Brett Tomko had a 1.48 ERA over his last 42.2 innings, and then he went back to being Brett Tomko for the rest of his career. You can’t rely on one hot month to make your judgments.
I want to split the difference and pick one under and one over, but I don’t think it makes sense: if he strikes out 180 guys he’ll probably win at least 11 games, and if he wins 11 games, he’ll probably have racked up the strikeouts at some point. No, it’s gonna be either both over or both under.
I’m torn on this one, but it’s important to be decisive. UNDER on both.
Johnny Cueto - Total Wins in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 8.5
I like Johnny Cueto, so I’m picking OVER. I don’t care that this is a stupid reason and he wasn’t anything special last year when he returned from injury. I like him. Over.
Anthony DeSclafani - Total Wins in the 2021 Regular Season
Over/Under 8.5
I think even if DeSclafani has a mediocre year, he has a good shot at getting to 9 wins. If he has a good year, the odds are even better. Sure, he was awful last year, but he’d been pretty reliable in his career before that, so it’s fairly likely that was just an outlier in a weird year. I’m taking the OVER.
And then just one more, from a different promotional email:
San Francisco Giants
Over/Under 75.5 wins
So far, I have picked more unders than overs. You might think that I’m bearish on the team then; if I think the stars aren’t going to be that good, then why would I think the team is going to be good?
The thing is, this team wasn’t constructed for the stars and everyday players to be the strength. It was constructed for platoon advantages, and to give opportunities to not just Mike Yastrzemski, but the future Mikes Yastrzemski who will then light it up. It was constructed so that either Donovan Solano hits .325 over 350 PAs, or some other backup middle infielder hits .325 over 250 PAs. There is a lot of depth on offense, hopefully, and that’s what the team is banking on. So what if Brandon Belt doesn’t hit 19 homers? He was the starting first baseman in two different seasons when he didn’t hit 19 homers and the Giants won the World Series. Good things can happen even with the unders.
That said, it sure would be easier to be near .500 if the starting first baseman hit 20 dingers this year. This is not to pick on Belt, but I try to be realistic about what the team is. They play the Padres and the Dodgers, probably the two best teams in the NL, a combined 38 times this year. Their path to the playoffs is a second wild card spot. The pitching staff is thin, even with Tyler Beede coming back from Tommy John in May (hopefully) and the emergence of Logan Webb (double hopefully). It’s a tough road.
But I’m taking the OVER, because for all the frustrating things about Farhan Zaidi treating the Giants like a fantasy team, he sure is proactive about cutting loose guys who aren’t performing and finding guys who are. The Giants have spent the last couple years hovering right on the edge of mediocrity. They might do that again, but I don’t think they’re falling into the abyss in 2021.