Over the last week, the Giants took 4 out of 6 games from the Dodgers and Astros. As of this writing on Monday afternoon, the Astros are tied with the Rays for the best record in the AL and the Dodgers are behind only the Giants, with the second best record in the NL. And so, for only the second time all season, the Giants have taken the top spot in The Athletic’s power rankings.
I hate it.
Don’t get me wrong here: I 100% think the Giants have earned the spot with their play this year. They have the best record in baseball, they’ve been winning against good teams, and while you can argue that maybe some other teams are better set up for the postseason, it’s become clear that the Giants are among Major League Baseball’s 2021 elite, any of whom have a legitimate argument to be the best team in the league.
But I’m not comfortable with the Giants being the favorite. My ideal playoff run is 2010, when the Giants weren’t supposed to win the division, then they weren’t supposed to win the NLCS, then they weren’t supposed to win the World Series (once the division was won, they were supposed to win the Division Series, or else we could have had a quadfecta). But every step of the way, most people didn’t believe in them. Then they won anyway.
Is correlation causation? No, obviously not. It would take some sort of example that happened two years later to really cement this idea…
THAT’S RIGHT IT’S DOUBLE CHECK MARK SEASON.
Before the 2012 World Series, everyone was certain that the Tigers would dominate the Giants. The Tigers, after all, had just breezed through the Yankees, sweeping them in the ALCS, while the Giants had just gotten through their second consecutive series where they had to win three straight with their backs against the wall. The Tigers had a dominant rotation; the Giants’ biggest star, Tim Lincecum, had had a terrible year and they were starting Barry Zito (???) against Justin Verlander in Game 1. The experts agreed: This was the Tigers’ series to lose, as best exemplified by the ludicrous advantage that Tim McCarver thought the Tigers had in starting pitching.
And then what happened?
So it’s comforting to me, in a way, to watch analysts overlook the Giants. Now, they shouldn’t have thought the Tigers had some huge advantage in the first place: their offense had no depth, and Giants starting pitching wasn’t as awful as the Double Check Marks might have made you think, but regardless, the Tigers were the consensus pick, like the Rangers and Phillies in 2010. And the Giants made the experts look stupid, which was delightful, but more importantly: I’m used to it.
I don’t understand a world where everyone thinks the Giants are great, and then they are, and then they win. I understand the Giants collapsing, or coming out of nowhere, but being the frontrunners and then running in front all year and winning the race? This does not comport with my experience of the San Francisco Giants. They were way ahead in ‘93 and they blew it; they won the West by 11 games in ‘00 and lost to the Mets; they handily won the division in ‘03 and lost to the Marlins. This is what I expect from a team that’s legitimately great: disappointment.
Does this actually make sense? I have to admit here that it does not. The ‘04 team and the ‘01 team fought down the stretch and missed the playoffs; the ‘98 team got Coorsed on the last day of the season, then lost Game 163 in Chicago. But those teams were never sure things, so their failures weren’t a reflection of my excessive hubris. Meanwhile, in 2016, I was all, “YEAH BEST RECORD IN BASEBALL AT THE BREAK, THESE GUYS ARE FOR REAL,” and friends, these guys were not for real. Was it my fault for believing too much? Who’s to say, but also yes.
So I want fewer power rankings like The Athletic’s and more like the one at MLB.com, which is hyping up the Dodgers because of their moves to acquire Trea Turner and Max Scherzer. That’s right, national media. Put the Giants second in your power rankings. Or fifth. Or leave them out entirely because you forgot they exist. Sure, you’d be “bad at your job” or whatever, but c’mon, don’t you really believe in the Dodgers just a little bit more? You know you want to sit them on that throne. Crown their asses, guys. Do it for me.