With the Jorge Soler signing being official and Spring Training underway, we can start taking stock of the roster. We can examine strengths and weaknesses, start guessing about whose failures or injuries will allow Luis Matos or Casey Schmitt another opportunity, and in all, get a good picture of what this team is going to look like when they break camp at the end of March.
Or can we?
Because those big free agents — Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, and Cody Bellinger — are still out there. Someone’s gotta sign them, right? And it could be the Giants, couldn’t it?
Well, no.
The Giants don’t have to do anything. They can certainly be done. As Andrew Baggarly reported, that’s certainly the story Farhan Zaidi is telling:
Sure, it’s all couched in “It’s not technically impossible!” but you only say that sort of thing when it’s wildly improbable. Yes, the Giants would sign literally any of those players to basically any one-year make-good deal they wanted, but these players are not looking for that kind of deal. Blake Snell already turned down a 5-year, $150 million contract from the Yankees, so you can be pretty sure he’s not signing a 3-year, $105 million deal with the Giants with opt-outs after every year. It’s not like there’s some rumor that the Giants might still be involved, right?
Damn you, Mark Feinsand! How dare you just show up and contradict me like that?
Just kidding! I don’t hold this against him because the Giants still aren’t signing Blake Snell.
If the Yankees have interest, which they do, and the Giants aren’t particularly willing to spend a lot on a free agent, which they’re not, then there’s pretty much no chance Snell goes to the Giants. Throwing his name out there in rumors is the equivalent of telling the Dodgers, “The Giants have made a real compelling pitch to Yamamoto” in order to get them to drive up the price.
As for the others, well, nobody has seriously connected Montgomery to the Giants this offseason. Montgomery is probably a good fit, since the Giants rotation desperately needs one more reliable pitcher, but he’s said to prefer the East Coast, so let’s not hold our breath. The Giants were said to have interest in Cody Bellinger back in December, but we haven’t heard a lot since, and current reports are that he (and Scott Boras) and the Cubs are laser-focused on a game of Who Will Blink First on offering Bellinger something like 8 years and $200 million. Bellinger thinks he should get that, while the Cubs feel the exact opposite. The Giants are not really involved in those rumors.
That leaves just Matt Chapman, who has been the one most closely connected with the Giants all offseason. And yet, despite Ghost Of Bay Area Bob’s near-constant assertions, nothing has been consummated yet. Like the Cubs and Bellinger, the Giants and Chapman are apparently not particularly close on price, and so nothing is happening.
But in a game of who’s going to blink first, well, it’s hard to see the Giants giving in. They already had their big signing of the offseason with Jung Hoo Lee, then they shored up the rotation with Jordan Hicks, and then they added big-time power with Jorge Soler, and just to really get fans excited, they brought in Pablo Sandoval on a minor league deal. They don’t have to do anything else. The beat writers are selling the company line of this being a more interesting team, and most of the fans I’ve seen are buying it. From that perspective, Matt Chapman would be an unnecessary, extraneous expense.
I mean, unless they want the team to get better. Because if you look at the Giants lineup, it’s filled with players who would be nice pieces around an actual star, which they don’t have. I mean, it’s possible that Jung Hoo Lee tears it up out of the gate, or Jorge Soler has a great year, or one of the young guys steps up and establishes himself as a force, but those aren’t the most likely scenarios. The Giants lineup features guys who are neither the problem nor the solution. They just are, and the team needs someone better than that.
But wait! I’m going to turn this around again, because I never believed in Matt Chapman. I think he’s a nice player who’s most likely going to turn into an okay one over the course of this contract, and won’t be the lift the team needs to take them to the next level. I think he’ll be an upgrade over JD Davis overall, but not a huge one offensively, which is what the team is desperate for. I think he’s started his decline phase, and you don’t really want to commit to that for 5 or 6 years. And I think that while the Giants front office probably disagrees with me on several of those points, they do agree that a 6-year contract for him probably isn’t the right move.
So unless Scott Boras drastically reduces his demands for Chapman, the Giants are done. Even in that scenario, there’s a good chance that the Giants say, “Nah, we’re good,” and go into the year with the roster they have. There’s a price at which they’d take Chapman, of course, but Boras won’t let it go down that far, and besides, the Giants are just about the last team that you want for a hitter to show off what he’s got. Oracle Park, while less unfriendly to hitters than it was a few years ago, is still a pitcher’s park, and just about any other stadium would lend itself to better numbers and, hopefully, a bigger contract down the line.
So this is it, then. This is the team. It will certainly look different once Michael Conforto strains a hamstring and the Giants start Wade Meckler in left field for a month straight, but for now, it’s safe to say that the 26-man Opening Day roster will come from what’s already in camp. It would be more exciting if that wasn’t true. The 2024 Giants would certainly be better. But the Giants did spend money this offseason, and spending more might not be the best move long-term.
They’re probably right. They could be more fun, but they are probably right.
Still could use another starter though.
Agreed with every point!
"Still could use another starter though."
I wonder if the A's would trade back Stripling?