Something something Eldridge horrors something

Will he be the best Bryce in baseball history? Only time will tell!

So the early returns on the Bryce Eldridge era aren’t great.

I know, I know, that’s an unfair way to put it. Eldridge was officially called up yesterday and went 0-for-3, though according to the broadcast, the fly ball he hit in his third at-bat would have been a home run in 23 out of the 30 parks in baseball. Further, there’s not a lot he could have done about the bullpen meltdown in the 6th inning, short of converting him to a part-time reliever, something that he apparently would enjoy (drafted as a two-way player!) but the organization would not.

But the offense wasn’t transformed by his presence, and neither were all of we, watching. Is it too much to ask that the Giants promote a prospect whose beatific light purifies the sins of the world and ushers us all into a new age of peace, prosperity, and eternal life? I don’t think so, but it seems like we’ll all have to wait for Jhonny Level for that one.

But what does it mean that Eldridge is in the majors now? He’s hit the ball well in Sacramento, but he hasn’t been spectacular. In 286 PAs there, he’s hitting .249/.322/.514, which comes out to a wRC+ of 106. I don’t want to be too down on Eldridge here because it’s actually incredibly impressive for a 20-year old to be a slightly above average hitter in AAA, but that line doesn’t scream, “I’m ready for the majors today!”

Again, this is not to say that Eldridge has been bad. He has shown an awful lot of power in a short time. But some of that power has to be taken in the context of the parks in the PCL. Eldridge has hit 18 homers in AAA, and 6 of them have come in his 16 games in Reno, Albuquerque, and Salt Lake, all parks where the ball flies. Not all of that power will necessarily translate to the majors immediately; instead, you might get balls that don’t quite go out, like the one in his third at-bat last night. As Eldridge gets older and adds muscle, those balls will fly a little farther and find forever homes with some nice fans in the bleachers, but for now, we’ll just have to wait.

The worry about Eldridge’s performance in Sacramento has been the whiffs. As a River Cat, he’s had a swinging strike percentage of 14.1%, which is right in line with notable whiffers like Grant McCray and Marco Luciano. GPT has a fuller breakdown of Eldridge’s whiffs on Bluesky:

Again, this is not a problem that in any way means Eldridge won’t have a good major league career. But you can see how much he struggles with swinging through changeups and breaking pitches, and therefore in the majors, he’s likely to see a lot of them. It’s not all bad: when he sees a hanging slider or curve, he clearly demolishes it. But in the majors, you’re going to see less of those, and you’re going to have to figure out what to do with the good breaking pitches to keep your at-bat alive for the bad ones. Is he there yet? Probably not.

However, the best way for him to get there is by playing. The River Cats start their last series of the season tonight and finish their season a week before the Giants do, so if the team wants to get Eldridge as many ABs as possible, then he’ll need some major league time. A left-handed first baseman shaped roster spot opened up with Dominic Smith’s injury, so the team probably figured that maybe Eldridge could catch lightning in a bottle, and up he came.

It’s impossible to predict how this will go, because it is impossible to predict what literally any major league quality player will do over a two week stretch. Willie Mays was awful when he was first called up, and Casey Schmitt looked like the best hitter on the planet. But you can expect teams hammering those weaknesses that you see in the table above. You can expect anyone with a cutter to throw it constantly to Eldridge, and a lot of changeups, and a lot of breaking stuff way out of the zone, hoping he’ll chase. You can probably also expect some 0-for-3 days, though hopefully there will also be some hits mixed in too.

It’s exciting that Bryce Eldridge got the call, and exciting that the team seems to be committed to playing him every day, at least against righties. But in the short term, you might want to remember that he’s not done developing yet. Buster Posey went 2-for-19 in 2009, and while he was perhaps less supported by management than Eldridge is, he was also Buster Posey. A poor showing in September won’t mean that Eldridge is a AAAA player, and a good showing won’t mean that you can pencil him in for the next 12 Opening Days. He has a ton of talent, and a ton of potential, and the anticipation is exciting, but please don’t let what he could be bias you against what he is.

And now that that’s all cleared up, let’s see some fuckin’ dingers.