The Giants traded Mauricio Dubon over the weekend, because it was time to make a choice. Tommy La Stella was coming off the IL, Dubon and Thairo Estrada were both out of options, and someone had to give. The Giants chose Estrada, shipping Dubon off to the Astros for a guy who’s not relevant to my point here. Welcome, Guy Who’s Not Relevant To My Point Here! May you do extremely well for the Giants.
But why did they choose Estrada? On the face of it, that seems like a kind of weird question. He was much better than Dubon last year, hitting .273/.333/.479 in 132 plate appearances. He’s gotten a lot more playing time than Dubon this year, 129 plate appearances (as of Sunday morning) to 49. With La Stella on the IL, Estrada was an everyday player and Dubon wasn’t, and that was clearly the team’s evaluation of those two players.
But…should it have been?
Estrada did a nice job last year, but he’s had a harder time in 2022, with his line slipping to .248/.281/.352. With the Giants, Dubon wasn’t too far off of that, hitting .239/.245/.391. Estrada is better defensively, especially on the infield, but Dubon has played a solid center field this year, and that’s pretty valuable itself. Other than playing time, this year their performances have been very similar.
The difference, then, comes down to two things: 2021 performance and Thairo Estrada not making a bonehead play on a weekly basis.
In his time with the Giants, Dubon was the embodiment of one step forward, two steps back. He’d get a hit leading off the eighth inning in a close game, and then immediately get picked off, or get thrown out trying to go first-to-third on a single. He would go from fun to frustrating in less time than it took you to say “Maybe Dubon’s putting it together after all!”
So it makes sense that the team would choose Estrada over Dubon. But this doesn’t inspire confidence:
This year, while hitting Thairo Estrada has been good at not striking out, not swinging through pitches, and running fast. He’s been okay at not chasing pitches, the hardest ball he’s hit is right in the middle of the pack in hardest balls hit, and he’s been terrible at everything else. He tends to hit the ball extremely softly, he doesn’t walk, he makes tons of outs…it’s been ugly.
Estrada’s not even getting unlucky. He’s hitting .242 and his expected batting average is .240; he’s slugging .347 and his expected slugging is .358; his wOBA is .270 and his expected wOBA is .276. He can’t just keep on keeping on and expect the results to turn around. His results are a fair reflection of the year he’s had.
Also, he went 2-for-4 with a walk yesterday in Colorado, so I’m really nailing the timing of this one.
But Estrada’s poor performance so far this season has mostly gone completely unnoticed, at least in the corners of Giantsdom that I pay attention to. Some of that is that it feels like the season just started, even though we’re already a quarter of the way in. Some of it is an understanding that the team doesn’t have a ton of other options, though more and more seem to be presenting themselves every week. And some of it is that Estrada’s a fun player, and it’s natural to want him to do well, just like it was natural to want Dubon to do well.
He’s not doing well, though. He’s not unplayable, but Thairo Estrada certainly shouldn’t be a starter right now. He’s not even an effective platoon player, since this year, last year, and over his career, he’s been a better hitter against righties than lefties (we’re in Microsplitsland here, but in 2022 Estrada has a 98 wRC+ against righties and -23 against lefties).
So what exactly is the thing that he’s adding right now? Just defense, and while defense is certainly important, it’s not important enough to counter what he’s done with the bat. Estrada’s spent the first quarter of the season as the starter at second base, and he has a 76 wRC+ to show for it. Coming into yesterday’s game, he was second on the team in plate appearances to Darin Ruf.
I don’t know what the answer is. I don’t even know if there’s a question to ask. Taking Estrada off the roster would mean losing him from the organization, and that’s not something anyone wants. But for now, he’s not doing anything that Luke Williams or future superstar Isan Diaz (listen to the McCovey Chroncast for more on my extremely high opinion of Isan Diaz!) couldn’t do in his place.
Last year, Thairo Estrada was, if not a revelation, at least a nice Aha Moment. This year, he’s been as good a hitter as John Bowker and Brian Horwitz were in 2008, and not quite to Emmanuel Burriss’s level. Estrada’s got plenty of rope left, but if his bat doesn’t come around, then he’s going to force the Giants to make a move that no one wants them to make.
It might seem that way — but you should see how great he’s doing me in my points league!