Look, any old loser can make baseball predictions before the season starts. That’s when everyone is expecting it. That’s also when everyone is doing it, like a bunch of sheep-people. Perhaps someday science will combine those two words into some sort of new form, but for now, we’re stuck with what we’ve got.
Every year, my friend Mike and I have a gentleman’s bet over who can better predict the upcoming baseball season. The only thing we stake on it is the greatest prize of all: pride in being correct. Mike is a Dodgers fan, and I root for the Giants, so we are familiar with each other’s teams and the NL West, which is where we’ll start out with the predictions.
NL West:
Doug: Giants
Mike: Giants.
Obviously, as the Giants were in first place when we made the predictions, I had no choice but to pick them to win the division. It was a bit of an upset that Mike went along with me, considering his Dodgers fandom, but he admits that the Giants are too good, and they’ll only be better when they make a midseason trade for the greatest pinch hitter ever: Mr. Pablo Sandoval.
NL Central:
D: Cardinals
The Cardinals have Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, in addition to the homegrown guys like Jack Flaherty. They’re really good. They’re extremely good. I hate that they’re so good, because they’re the Cardinals, but it’s how things are.
M: Reds.
People forget about the Reds. They have a solid staff, interesting prospects, and they’re arguably as talented as St Louis. The Cardinals pen is gonna be a problem. The division is basically a big bowl of Skyline chili anyway, so who better to win it?
NL East:
D: Braves
They have Acuña. Also a bunch of other guys who are good, but Acuña. They win.
M: Mets.
Mets pitching’s too good. They’ve been unlucky so far, but it won’t last.
NL Wild Cards:
D: Padres, Mets
Am I picking the Dodgers to miss the playoffs, in defiance of every rational impulse in my body? Yes. I am.
M: Dodgers, Padres
Jake Cronenworth is very good. Don’t sleep on him.
NL MVP:
D: Betts
Finally, a reason for me to dislike the Red Sox! It’s about time I got one.
M: Acuña
He’s Acuña. This is a better pick.
NL Cy Young:
D: Nola
Aaron Nola is very likely to have an excellent year, I think!
M: deGrom
Jacob deGrom has been the best pitcher in the NL for years now. Easy pick.
NL Rookie of the Year:
D: Sixto Sanchez
I think he’ll be good. Not a lot of analysis to go here!
M: Zach McKinstry
Yeah yeah, the latest Dodgers 34th rounder who’ll be a nightmare over the next half decade. We get it, Dodgers, you can summon these guys on a whim. Give it a break.
NL Disappointing team:
D: Phillies
Aren’t the Phillies always disappointing, metaphysically speaking? Yes. This year, they will be again, slightly more.
M: Braves.
People expect too much from them and they’ll be one and done in the playoffs. The pitching staff is young and injured.
NL Cool Team:
D: Pirates.
They’re already not as bad as they were supposed to be. If this continues throughtout the season, people are gonna get mad at them for not losing like they should. They’ll ruin the days of a bunch of NL Central teams just by playing respectable ball. And in that division, respectable will just annoy the shit out of a bunch of guys. And that’s cool as hell.
M: Rockies.
Hitters thrive in Colorado. There are gonna be wild games once they’re done with the current depressing fire-the-front-office phase. You’ll see a bunch of 16-14 games, and tons of dingers. Colorado is a wild place to play baseball, so even if the team is bad, you’ll see some cool shit.
NL Worst Record:
D: Rockies
M: Dbacks.
They have a pool, which is uncool in COVID times.
AL West:
D: Angels
Betting on Trout and Ohtani, which I’m comfortable with because they’re cool.
M: A’s.
AL Central:
D: White Sox
M: Twins
He acknowledges their tenacity. He thinks the White Sox will rebel against La Russa. The pitching is there for Minnesota, people will ignore them, and Nelson Cruz rules. It’ll be great for them to make the playoffs only to lose in the first round again.
AL East:
D: Yankees
M: Rays
They have too many good prospects, and Wander Franco hasn’t even showed up yet. This is a deep team, and depth wins.
AL Wild Cards:
D: A’s, Rays
M: Astros, White Sox
What he wants to see is this: The Astros make the playoffs, and a huge crowd of pent up angry fans will boo the shit out of them. Then they get routed by the White Sox. Then they suffer.
AL MVP:
D: Ohtani
M: Buxton
Mike almost picked Vlad jr, but he won’t win it with the Blue Jays playing their home games in Florida instead of Toronto. These are both narrative picks, with Ohtani’s success being crucial to my pick of the Angels winning the division, and Byron Buxton needing to continue his breakout year if the Twins are going to rebound from their slow start.
Also, both these dudes are cool as hell.
AL Cy Young:
D: Gerrit Cole
M: Giolito
Mike described Giolito as the California Pizza Kitchen of pitchers, and called him a sneaky favorite.
AL Rookie of the Year:
D: Kelenic
Jarred Kelenic became a hot topic this offseason, when the then-Mariners president, Kevin Mather, was recorded at a talk to rich people, telling them all sorts of insider information that he certainly regrets being recorded saying. One of those topics was about Kelenic, who he said would not be called up in early April no matter what, as a way of controlling his service time. This is because Jarred Kelenic is very good and the Mariners will bend every rule they can to keep him on the team longer.
M: Kirilloff
Alex Kirilloff is off to a bad start this year, but Mike believes in him. Like the Twins! Just like the Twins.
AL Disappointing team:
D: Rays
They hit a big high last year, getting to the World Series, so it’s time for them to face a tiny amount of adversity and then trade half the team for prospects. It’s never too soon to build for 2024!
M: Twins
This is a sneaky double prediction, because either they’ll miss the playoffs, or they’ll get there and lose in the first round of the playoffs. Smart!
AL Cool Team:
D: Royals
They’re fun and cool and everything, but the stadiu has fountains. IT HAS FOUNTAINS.
M: Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays give you home run robbing from Teoscar Hernandez, as well as Vlad Jr, and Hyun-jin Ryu. Playing in Florida is admittedly uncool, but in spite of that and a lack of national coverage, they’ll still be a very cool team. People don’t know about the Blue Jays. They’re like Arcade Fire when they put out The Suburbs, and people were like “Yeah, this is good, but Funeral was great.” Funeral, in this metaphor, represents the Bautista years. It’s a good metaphor.
AL Worst Record:
D: Tigers
M: Yankees.
The East is decent and Yankees pitchers are awful. They have a guy from Germany, Kluber, Jordan Montgomery, and a bunch of injured beefy boys. They’re injury prone, their offense sucks, and they don’t have enough prospects to help out.
There might have been a bit of picking with his heart over his head on this one.
World Series:
D: White Sox over Braves
Look, I don’t want to pick something lame, like the Cardinals or Yankees being involved in any way. This seemed like a cool, fun World Series matchup that we definitely won’t get because it’ll actually be Dodgers-Red Sox or some awful crap like that.
M: Padres over White Sox
Stone cold lock about your favorite team:
D: Anthony DeSclafani has a 2.80 or better ERA
This is much worse than he’s doing now! If anything, I’m being too conservative.
M: David Price has at least 10 saves
Specific outlandish prediction:
D: David Freese will admit he bet on games he played in and no one will care
M: Rob Manfred will disrespect Shohei Ohtani and Japan will come down hard on him. They’ll cancel Nippon/MLB exhibition games and prevent players from coming to America. Manfred’s offense will be something like saying the Angels are scared to play Ohtani more because he’s not durable. He will take offense, and it will cause an international incident.
Boy, that was a lot of predictions, wasn’t it? The important thing is this: we had fun, and also I will be closely monitoring these predictions as the season goes on in order to figure out whether I won or whether it’s not a big deal and who even remembers when people predicted this kind of thing anyway, I sure don’t.