You can go anywhere for a Major League Baseball season preview in April. It’s commonplace. Easy. Prosaic. There’s almost no way for a small mom-and-pop Substack operation to stand out from the crowd.
Unless you do it in June.
Folks, there is an untapped market here for midseason season previews. Nobody’s thought of it. Nobody does it.
Until now.
Every year, my friend Mike and I make a gentleman’s bet regarding who can best predict the upcoming season. This year, we finished making predictions on Friday, June 10. Some would see this as a problem or a weakness. It is neither. It is a new paradigm. It is innovation in action. It is us disrupting the season preview space.
Here is the format: we make our picks in each category for each league, swapping who goes first. For example, Mike went first for the NL West predictions, then I went first on the NL Central, then he went first for the East, and so on. Then, at the end, we each predict the World Series matchup, one specific outlandish prediction leaguewide, and then one stone-cold lock about the teams we root for (for me, the Giants; for him, the Dodgers). We are allowed to agree on exactly one division winner, and no more. This rule came about during 2017 or so, when it became clear that it was unfair to make one of us not pick the Cubs to win the NL Central against pathetic competition.
Without further ado, here are the picks:
NL West:
D: Rockies
M: Giants
Look, Mike made the bold choice to take the Giants, and what was I going to do? Pick the Dodgers? Absolutely not. The Padres? What am I, a chump who picks the Padres for things? The Diamondbacks? They’re clearly nothing but a tax shelter for Chevron. No, the only reasonable pick was Charlie Blackmon and company to stun the world and take the NL West. Sure, it seems unreasonable when you say it out loud, but maybe that’s why it’s a great prediction.
NL Central:
D: Brewers
M: Cardinals
NL East:
D: Mets
M: Phillies
I think the Brewers are the best team in the Central, and most importantly, they’re not the Cardinals. Picking the Cardinals would be gross and wrong, and should be avoided unless absolutely necessary. I also think the Mets are the best team in the East, and eagerly await their inevitable playoff disappointment.
NL Wild Cards:
D: Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals
M: Dodgers, Brewers, Mets
But, I mean, it’s not like I think the Dodgers and Giants and Cardinals won’t make the playoffs. They’re all quite good.
MVP:
D: Freddie Freeman
M: Manny Machado
Either Freddie Freeman will have a poor year or I will be right. Classic win-win! Meanwhile, Mike went with Manny Machado, a much better pick.
Cy Young:
D: Max Scherzer
M: Max Fried
Rookie of the Year:
D: MacKenzie Gore
M: Oneil Cruz
I’m going to be honest. I looked up lists of possible Rookie of the Year and just picked one, then I named some until Mike also picked one.
We don’t know a lot about rookies.
Disappointing team:
D: Braves
M: Rockies
The Braves would have been my pick even if they didn’t win the World Series last year. Just a division win would have ensured that they wildly disappoint their fans in 2022. But with that ring, the fans will be even more bitter about the team’s failures this year. It’s going to be a lot of fun for non-Braves fans.
Meanwhile, Mike’s very specific prediction about the Rockies is that they will disappoint their fanbase by trading Kris Bryant to the Cardinals. It is what’s known as transactional disappointment, and it is a bold pick, though one well supported by recent Rockies history.
Cool Team:
D: Phillies
M: Reds
I’m a sucker for teams that hit lots of dingers and can’t pitch.
Worst Record:
D: Pirates
M: Reds
Mike is apparently a sucker for teams that are terrible. Can a team be both the worst and the coolest team in the league? Only one way to find out!
AL West:
D: Astros
M: Astros
The one place where we’re allowed to agree. I mean, who else is it going to be? The Mariners? No, it is not going to be the Mariners. It is going to be the Astros. I believe Baseball Prospectus has their odds of winning the division at 118% right now, and they’ll only go up as the year continues.
AL Central:
D: Guardians
M: Twins
I don’t have an easy nickname for the Guardians now that we can’t call them the Tribe. Is this a problem? Who’s to say?
AL East:
D: Yankees
M: Rays
The Yankees are the best team in the majors. This isn’t hard.
AL Wild Cards:
D: Rays, Blue Jays, Twins
M: Royals, Yankees, Mariners
MVP:
D: Ohtani
M: Devers
I went with Ohtani last year, and it worked, so I’m rolling with it. Devers, meanwhile, is just having a great year for the Red Sox. Also, Ohtani definitely won’t win another MVP, but that’s fine. Dance with the Angel that brung ya, as I always say.
Cy Young:
D: Kevin Gausman
M: Alek Manoah
#foreverGiant
Rookie of the Year:
D: Spencer Torkelson
M: Bobby Witt
TANK FOR TORK. TANK FOR TORK. I still believe!
Disappointing team:
D: Red Sox
M: Yankees (lose in ALCS)
The Red Sox are the safest pick imaginable for Most Disappointing Team, because every year they don’t win the World Series, they are somehow the most disappointing team in the league. It’s fun if you don’t like them, the way most people don’t like them.
The other easy pick is the Yankees, and Mike believes that they will have a 2001 Mariners-like phenomenal regular season, followed by a 2001 Mariners-like loss in the ALCS. You have to admit, that would be disappointing for them.
Cool Team:
D: Rangers
M: Blue Jays
I’m a sucker for teams that hit lots of dingers and can’t pitch.
The Blue Jays are a much, much better pick, though.
Worst Record:
D: Orioles
M: A's
Someone has picked the Orioles every year. There is a good reason for that. On the other hand, at this point the A’s are only a Major League Baseball team on a technicality. So, tough call!
World Series:
D: Blue Jays over Mets
M: Blue Jays over Giants
Neither of us wants to pick anyone else out of the AL. We’re picking with our hearts, then, and that’s fine.
Specific outlandish prediction:
D: Kyle Schwarber will do dark magicks to steal Rhys Hoskins's power
M: Joe Maddon is hired midseason as Orioles manager and is then fired again, then dons a Bobby V glasses-and-mustache disguise and is hired by the A's
You know, about a month ago, I was thinking, “Tommy Pham will slap Joc Pederson over a fantasy football dispute,” but if I used that now, people would think I was a poser. It’s total bullshit, but it’s the world we live in. So instead I’m going to go with my second choice, which is that it will be revealed that Rhys Hoskins has been having a down year solely because Kyle Schwarber has been tapping into the black arts in order to steal his power. Hoskins will discover this, by the way, with indisputable evidence, but not really understand what’s going on. Rhys Hoskins, you see, is a man of science.
Meanwhile, Mike is convinced that Joe Maddon’s 2022 journey is just beginning. He will be hired by the Orioles, fired, then he will disguise himself in order to get hired by the A’s, which will also happen, only for it all to fall apart when he is revealed to be Quirky Joe Maddon.
I understand that these are bold predictions, but we very much believe in them and would appreciate your confidence.
Stone cold lock:
D: Austin Wynns will hit .280 with 12 homers over the rest of the year
M: Mookie Betts MVP
I’ve seen enough from Austin Wynns to know that he is the real deal. With Curt Casali’s injury limiting his ability to start every day, Wynns will establish himself as a major league caliber catcher in short order.
Meanwhile, Mike thinks that Mookie Betts will win the MVP this year, which is curious, considering that we had an entire category about picking MVPs, and Mookie’s name did not come up. But predictions are predictions, and they must be honored.
This concludes the predictions for the 2022 Gentleman’s Challenge, the only MLB season preview to take place in mid-June. This is going to start a sea change in baseball journalism. I can feel it.