The odds of signing the big free agents
...will not be seen here, but as a proxy for odds, we can use the behavior of bettors
Sometimes I get an email from a PR guy at an oddsmaking site. Now, I am against sports gambling mostly because I think it makes the sport boring — like, I don’t fucking care about the day’s line, and I’ll never care about that, and if I’m being honest I don’t think anybody else should care about it either, because it’s entirely extraneous to the experience of watching the game, which should be the entire point, and the further we get away from that, the more we make baseball the side activity to betting money, the more the game itself will become irrelevant, so by partnering with gambling organizations, I think Major League Baseball is sowing the seeds of its own decline solely to make a quick buck — so I usually don’t talk about the emails. Oh, whatever, odds. Who cares? Did Blake Snell go from even money to win the Cy Young to 1/2 (a 67% chance) to win it? God, I’m bored even making that hypothetical up.
But sometimes I need content, so, fine, gambling email. Let’s fucking go.
The email I got on the 28th was about the odds of where most of the biggest free agents were going to sign (apologies to Jung Hoo Lee, who has been DISRESPECTED by the baseball establishment and should take recourse by signing with the San Francisco Giants to spite them). So I thought it would be fun to go through them, give the odds for each player, and then write little blurbs underneath the title text in order to give more context and information.
Shohei Ohtani, 12/1, 5th place
We’ll start with The Big One, who is going to sign with the Dodgers. But maybe he won’t! If you think he won’t, then you are in the vast, vast minority, and you should be proud to have the courage of your convictions. Yeah! Yeah, what does literally everyone else know, anyway? You know that Shohei Ohtani will pick the Giants when no other free agent (Carlos Correa and his bad ankle aside) will, and he’ll do it despite his vocal desire to go to a team that wins, and that’ll show the rest of baseball. That’ll show them good!
The Dodgers, by the way, have 2/7 odds on signing Ohtani. If I understand odds right, and it is entirely possible I don’t because, again, I find sports betting to be an exceptionally boring topic, then that means the break even point for betting on the Dodgers is a 78% chance that they sign him. If you think the Los Angeles Dodgers have a 4-in-5 chance or better of signing Ohtani, then they are a good bet. If not, then they are a bad bet. By this math, if you think the Giants have at least an 8% chance of signing Ohtani, then they are a good bet. In other words, betters think they’re 10 times more likely to see Shohei Ohtani in a Dodgers uniform than in a Giants one.
If you were on the fence before, perhaps you now see why this is boring. I’ll try not to say so many numbers at you going forward.
Also, it’s not like the betters are wrong, necessarily.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 7/1, 5th place
The Mets are on top of the heap here at 3/1, with the Dodgers in second at 4/1, and then the Red Sox and Yankees tied at 5/1. So at least it’s not an Ohtani situation where one team is an overwhelming favorite, and since Jon Morosi says the Giants are “set on trying to acquire one or the other” (with the other being Ohtani), and they’re almost certainly not getting Ohtani, they’ll have an awful lot of money available to offer to Yamamoto.
In that sense, then, 5th place seems a little low, right? Rich team, lots of money to throw around…they should be at the top. Except for the one tiny detail that their determination doesn’t actually matter that much. It will keep them in the contest, but will the Giants actually be willing to offer Objectively Too Much Money? Because that’s what it will take. Or will they just be one of the better competitive offers, and hope he picks them? If Steve Cohen breaks the bank, can the Giants compete with that? I’m not sure they can.
Juan Soto, 8/1, 6th place
It’s hard to see this one happening for me. Yes, the Padres are likely to trade Soto, but if they trade him to the Giants, they’ll want premium prospects for just one year of Soto. The Giants should not offer premium prospects. If the Padres were willing to take a package centered on, like, Luis Matos and Carson Whisenhunt or something, then the Giants would have to think about it. But otherwise: one year. Soto will be a free agent after the 2024 season, and there’s no sense in spending prospect capital when keeping him will require money capital next offseason regardless.
Then there’s the division thing, which is that the Giants and Padres play in the same division. Now, a lot of people think that would prevent the Padres from making the deal. They might be right! But I think that would be silly. If you were the Padres, and you thought you could get good young players from the Giants, wouldn’t you want to do that more? Yes, it would suck to see Soto on the Giants for a year, but if you believe in Luis Matos, wouldn’t it be worth it to have him for 6?
So I don’t think the Giants will trade for Soto, but not because of the division thing. It’ll be because they won’t want to pay what he costs, so the Padres will ship him to the Yankees, who will give up prospects who never amount to anything, and then Soto will sign a very rich extension and stay in New York forever. Search your heart. You know it to be true.
Mike Trout, 5/1, 4th place
Nah.
I mean, I’d love to have Trout on the Giants, but I don’t really think the Angels are shopping him. They’re already losing one star this offseason. They can’t give up another one.
Tyler Glasnow, 9/1, 6th place
Glasnow is good enough to be worth the price the Giants would have to pay. On pure talent, it makes total sense. But when you consider that his personal best for innings pitched in a season is 120, and you account for the inevitable injuries that will crop up, and the fact the 2024 will be his age 30 season, and the Giants would only have him for one year, well, it’s hard to be too enamored with the idea of a big trade package for him.
So it’s possible that the Giants trade for Glasnow, but not tremendously likely, and it’s a chance that other teams (for example, the Los Angeles Dodgers, if you’d like a team that you can mentally boo right now) are in a better position to take. The upside for Glasnow with the Dodgers is a starter with great stuff in the postseason. The upside for Glasnow with the Giants is the same, but it’s a lot less likely that the Giants get to the postseason.
Sorry, in my head that was pithier, but oh well. You get the point. He’s a lot more likely to help the Dodgers in October than the Giants.
Blake Snell, 3/1, 2nd place
Hey, now we’re talking!
I mean, do I want Snell? Sure, he’s like Glasnow but with the good parts magnified, and he won’t require prospects as trade capital. Those are pluses. He also massively outperformed his FIP last year and led the league in walks, which are minuses, and he doesn’t go deep into games, averaging less than 6 innings per start in 2023. He’s also won two Cy Youngs, which tend to make people stop nitpicking quite so much.
But he’s a strong Giants target because he’s outwardly good yet still very obviously flawed, which is Giants catnip. The signing has quite the chance of being a disaster, but if the team could just get Snell to keep juggling those chainsaws forever, the things will turn out okay.
The Dodgers are the team above the Giants, by the way. And if they sign him, then he will morph into the second coming of Clayton Kershaw, Tricky situation for the Giants, who are absolutely damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
Cody Bellinger, 3/1, 2nd place
Again, a good chance that this one is right. In this case, the Yankees are in first, and George Steinbrenner’s sons aren’t quite as loose with the pursestrings as old George was, which means the Giants will have a chance to swoop in and give Bellinger the money he wants. But again, should they? Bellinger is coming off of two awful seasons and his Statcast data isn’t exactly enamored with his 2023.
He also smells like Dodger, which is gross.
Josh Hader, Not listed
Thank you, everyone. He can stay away.
Jordan Montgomery, 20/1, 13th place
I am listing Montgomery for completeness and completeness alone. Nobody thinks the Giants will sign Jordan Montgomery, but he is on the list, so I might as well include him here.
Matt Chapman, 4/1, 2nd place
We wrap up with a gentleman who has already been discussed on this here Internet website, Matt Chapman. The Yankees are said to be a likelier landing spot for Chappie than the Giants are, and aside from Bellinger and (maybe) Lee, Chapman is one of the few offensive players who could be a difference maker.
Now, as already stated in the above link, I do not have a strong belief in Matt Chapman to be an above average hitter for a long time. But the team is said to have quite a lot of interest, and every player has question marks hanging over his head, which makes Chapman’s particular question marks seem less imposing. Still, the Giants certainly should be high up in the list of Chappie’s possible destinations. They are determined to spend way too much money on someone this offseason, and if Ohtani and Yamamoto both don’t work out, then Chapman is exactly the sort of backup plan they would jump on. He’s just a very Giants player, so for him to actually go to the Giants would work out perfectly.
Just not for me, someone who would prefer to avoid Matt Chapman on the Giants.
But wait, Dood - what's the over-under on Snyder changing his mind about Las Vegas??