The pros and cons of overspending
With the caveat that overspending is a loaded term and the players should have a larger portion of baseball's revenue etc etc etc
Hitters, for whatever reason — perhaps it’s on-field factors, perhaps it’s off-field ones, and we don’t need to go into that again — are loath to sign with the San Francisco Giants. The roster, then, is not quite as good as it would otherwise be. When other free agents look at the Giants, they see a team that isn’t as competitive as they would like, making them even less likely to sign. It’s a vicious cycle, and it doesn’t show any signs of stopping this offseason.
The Giants need to sign good hitters to be able to sign good hitters , but they can’t sign good hitters without having already signed good hitters . It’s a real bind! Sure, they could develop some good hitters , which would make other good hitters happier to sign, but on the other hand, we all know that no they can’t. That’s very difficult and it’s been a long time since the Giants had any real success with it — shout out to Joe Panik — so we can’t expect it to happen now, just because they have a bunch of guys who looked promising in the high minors. You can’t fool us! We’re onto you!
What the team needs is at least a couple veteran free agents to solidify the lineup and take the pressure off the young guys, who can then develop while hitting seventh instead of fifth or second, which are much tougher assignments. But, of course, those free agents are hitters and we’ve already discussed the challenge of signing free agent hitters.
But what if, and just hear me out here, the Giants offered significantly more money than anyone else? Have they tried that?
Jon Morosi reported on MLB Network yesterday that Jorge Soler and the Giants were in a “staring contest” because he wanted either three years or two years plus a player option, and the team wanted to only sign him for two years. Soler’s pluses and minuses have both been well documented, including right here last week. But that third year might be a tough one to swallow, considering that he’s a pure DH and his bat has had its ups and downs over his career.
Susan Slusser reported on Twitter last night that Soler and the Giants agreed to a three-year deal.
Now first off, if it’s your birthday today, happy birthday to you! Sure, you didn’t get the best gift possible, but it’s something. And hey, something is by definition not nothing, so it could be worse. When you think about it from that perspective, it’s clearly a good move! Sure, as of this writing, we don’t have the financial terms, but think of the birthday thing. Good move.
But how did the Giants get him? They gave Soler that third year that no one else was willing to offer, which makes the deal an overpay. Hey, that’s exactly the thing I was talking about before! What are the odds?
So is this a good thing for the team? Well, yes, for now. It’s not likely he’ll perform this year the same way he did last year, though I think we would all take .250/.341/.512 with 36 homers, but as a step towards having a credible major league lineup, Soler is an important addition. Since he is such a defensive liability, it seems like he’ll restrict Bob Melvin’s ability to keep guys fresh by rotating them through the DH spot, but this team played Joc Pederson in the outfield in 37 different games last year, so you can’t count on them just auto-filling DH in every game he starts.
Philosophically, though, what does it mean to give Soler that extra year? The 2026 Giants might not be too thrilled about this move, but who’s to say if baseball will even be around by then? Maybe everyone will spontaneously forget the rules and that’ll be it for the sport. We just don’t know. You can’t predict the future, so you might as well shore up the present. The team needs a Jorge Soler-type, and they got one. Good work.
On the other hand, as much as Farhan Zaidi’s Whole Thing hasn’t been a spectacular success outside of that one year, it also hasn’t crippled the team. And a big part of Farhan Zaidi’s Whole Thing is making one smart baseball move after another. Is signing Soler for that third year a smart baseball move? Probably not! As much as I slapped a “You can’t prove he won’t be Nelson Cruz” comp on Soler last week, I mean, he’s not going to be Nelson Cruz. He’s entering his age 32 year and he’s a high strikeout hitter, and that just screams decline.
The hope is that he won’t decline so fast that he’s unplayable this year. If the team also gets a decent 2025 out of him, so much the better. 2026? Well, let’s accentuate the positive. But this is exactly the kind of deal that the team tries to avoid. They gave a three year deal to Mitch Haniger, and then traded him away after the first year because it wasn’t working out, but at least he could theoretically play outfield. But there’s a very narrow range of outcomes that make Soler a good signing, and most of them dry up before America hits its semiquincentennial.
That doesn’t mean that this is a bad deal or that the Giants are stupid or anything like that. It was necessary to get a hitter, and hopefully he will both do well and also encourage other hitters to not treat the Giants as a pariah team. But the cost of getting Soler was doing it for an extra year, one that’s not likely to go particularly well for the team. Right now, I think it was probably worth it, but ask me again when I see how he’s doing in June.
Hitters don't want to sign with the Giants, and Zaidi is reluctant to sign a pitcher to a long-term deal. Nonetheless, I'm confident the Giants will sign the best players who don't hit or pitch.