After an NLCS that unfortunately went only 5 games, and an ALCS that thankfully went only 4, we had our World Series matchup on Sunday. The Philadelphia Phillies, who have a bunch of dudes who will hit the heck out of some dingers, will face off against the Houston Astros, who have a bunch of dudes who will prevent the heck out of some dingers. It’s a classic tale: lots of dingers vs lots of pitching and also the Astros can hit dingers too in fact they hit more dingers than the Phillies during the year.
Hm, on paper this doesn’t seem like the greatest matchup for Philadelphia, does it? It would seem that Houston was somewhat better at everything other than defense, where they were way better, just so much better, like holy shit absolutely no comparison blow ‘em out of the water better. The Astros were 3rd in the league in defense. The Phillies were 3rd to last. That’s a pretty big difference!
But as people who watched the Giants this year, we’re well used to watching bad defensive teams, and we know that they even win sometimes. In fact, the last time the Astros lost, it was to the Phillies! Behind Aaron Nola, the Phillies beat the Astros 3-0 on October 3, which was actually the victory that clinched a playoff spot for them. Sure, then they lost the next two games, but that was their post-clinch hangover, so you can just throw out those inconvenient results.
Here is my thesis: the Phillies have a chance even though the Astros are way better. Like, way, way better. I mean, they should be better, but they should be better by less than they are. That’s a slight knock on the Phillies, but it’s more a huge compliment to the Astros. They had an incredible team, and the only two reasons people didn’t talk about them more were (A) The Astros won a recent World Series while being the cheatingest cheaters who ever cheated and (B) The 2022 Dodgers were a somewhat more incredible team.
But! If the More Incredible Dodgers could lose to a mere Normal Playoff Team, then the Astros can too. Just being the better team guarantees you nothing. The better team lost in both NLDS series this year, and the Phillies were certainly the better team in both the 2011 NLDS and the 2010 NLCS, and they lost both times, and the Astros were the better team in last year’s World Series, and they all lost.
Just being better guarantees you nothing. Over the next couple days, before the series starts, you will hear pundits giving their takes on what will happen. Those takes, like all sports takes, will be meaningless drivel designed to get clicks and eyeballs, and then to immediately be forgotten.
By the way, thank you for reading my sports takes.
But there is too much variance in baseball, too much uncertainty. You cannot get rid of it without compromising the essence of the sport. Sure, you might think that Justin Verlander will outpitch Barry Zito, but you can’t know. So anyone who gives you that false certainty is just lying to you. It could be a lie that the person thinks is true, or a lie that they feel obligated to repeat because that’s what you do on TV, but a lie is a lie regardless of the intentions behind it.
I mean, there’s a playbook for this kind of series. It’s something like this:
HOST A: You look at Houston’s rotation, you look at Houston’s bullpen, they just have too much pitching.
HOST B: Yeah, but have they faced guys like Schwarber and Harper back to back? And not just the talent level — we all know the talent of Judge and Stanton — but just in terms of how hot they’ve been this postseason.
HOST A: You can’t overlook what the Phillies have done, but I just…I just think on the pitching side, Houston is too dominant. Those pitchers will shut down Philadelphia’s offense.
HOST B: You heard it here first. Astros pitching is going to be too much for Phillies hitting to handle. That’s all the time we have, and stay tuned for Scrotum Wars.
Do you gain anything from that other than a vague awareness that Astros pitching is great? No; the rest is just opinion, and other people’s sports opinions are the most useless content imaginable.
By the way, thank you for reading my sports opinions.
Certainty is a sucker’s game. That misplaced confidence you always see in pregame shows is just a way of drawing people in because people are attracted to confidence. You see someone say something with conviction, and you believe it, and you believe him, and it doesn’t matter what the thing is. But it’s meaningless. It’s a step above trying to guess lottery numbers, but not that big of a step. You should ignore anyone who claims to know what will happen in the series before it starts, because you won’t get anything useful out of that conversation.
Anyway, the Astros are definitely going to win it in 5.
The Scrotum Wars were always what was beneath the Belt Wars.
I agree, and if anyone gives you a hard time about your opinion, just remember that they are merely ignorant commenters.
Thank you for reading my comment.