Brandon Crawford is extremely good this year.
I know, I know, this is a big surprise, but if you check the stats, it’s true! Crawford is an All-Star this year, for the third time in his career, and it is a richly, and obviously, deserved honor. So let’s say he keeps this pace up for the whole season. What happens then?
Just to get the Debbie Downer doomerism out of the way, Crawford has had dominant first halves before. Back in 2018, he hit .292/.363/.462 before the All-Star Break with 10 homers. After the break, he slumped badly to a .193/.261/.282 line. I don’t want it to seem like that will definitely happen again, but I’m definitely not going to be the guy who curses Crawford by acting like a prolonged slump is impossible.
That being said, let’s assume he doesn’t slump. Let’s assume he goes on with his bad self, having a sensational year all around. The Giants make the playoffs. Brandon Crawford is, once more, a Bay Area sports hero. Dodgers are slain, and maidens swoon from afar. Huzzahs are dispensed all around.
Then what?
Crawford is a free agent at the end of the year, and the top prospect in the system, Marco Luciano, plays shortstop. 2021 Brandon Crawford sports a 144 OPS+ with excellent defense and is, according to Fangraphs, the 16th best position player in baseball right now. Marco Luciano, meanwhile, is having an excellent season as a San Jose Giant, in low-A ball, and is likely several years away from the majors, even assuming a reasonably quick trip through the minor leagues.
So, re-sign Brandon Crawford. Great. We’re all agreed.
The thing is, though, when a baseball player has a phenomenal year like Crawford is having, he commands a lot of money over a lot of years. If you give, say, a 4-year contract to a 35-year old shortstop (as Crawford will be in April), then you’re betting the first two years are going to be worth what are likely to be two bad years on the back end.
However, those first two years might not be worth a massive amount of money. Let’s take Rich Aurilia as an example. In 2001, Aurilia hit .324/.369/.572 — a 146 OPS+ — with 37 homers. Over the next two years, he hit .267/.315/.411 — a 91 OPS+ — with 28 total homers. Aurilia was still a good player, worth having around. He would not have been worth a superstar contract. At the time, Aurilia was several years younger than Crawford is now, with a stronger offensive track record. A bet on him to repeat that season would still have been a massively losing bet.
So when deciding whether re-signing Crawford is a good idea, you have to assume he won’t be the player he is this year. As much as Brandon Crawford personally deserves all the money and acclaim that the Giants organization can shovel at him, building a roster where he is an offensive centerpiece is going to lead to a weaker roster than you want. The most likely scenario is that you are paying Crawford a lot of money to be a liability. If you’re running an organization, you probably shouldn’t do that.
It seems a little cavalier to sum Crawford up like that, doesn’t it? He means more to the team and the city than that, and the team and the city mean more to him. But the Farhan regime has let guys go before. Madison Bumgarner was an iconic Giant, and after a good 2019 season, the team made him a cursory offer that they knew he’d reject and let him go on his way, and the team is better for it.
Nobody wants that to be the case with Crawford, but the fact is that his performance will likely get him a contract offer that the Giants would be loath to match. They will have to replace his production, which will be very difficult, and replace his presence in the community, which will be just about impossible, but they very likely will choose to try. Crawford is simply too good this year to not get a huge offer. Farhan Zaidi is not in the habit of making huge offers to non-Harpers. It is hard to see the match there.
Brandon Crawford is on the shortlist of the best Giants of this century. I do not want him to go anywhere. But it is a very real possibility, for very valid baseball reasons. Crawford shouldn’t accept significantly less money than he’s worth on the open market. The Giants probably shouldn’t offer anywhere near what Crawford is worth on the open market. It is going to be a tough situation with no easy resolution.
Good thing the owners are going to lock the players out in 2022, huh? Man, that’s gonna save everyone some headaches.