What would a successful season even look like?
For the Giants, I mean, not the league. For the league, a successful season would look like them crushing the Players Union and feasting on its desiccated corpse.
Let’s assume they get past the hurdles. The players and owners come to an agreement that is only moderately pro-owner and barely even sets a management-friendly precedent for this coming fall’s collective bargaining agreement negotiation. They iron out all the health details, and the economics, and the roster dynamics, and whatever they’re gonna do with all the players not on a major league roster. They figure it out, and the season starts around July 1 and they play 82 games before some expanded playoffs, including the World Series, and Baseball Heals A Wounded Nation.
Way to go, baseball! You did it! You get a pat on the butt and an attaboy.
So that’s done. Now the Giants are playing baseball games every day. So the question is, now that they’re playing, what would constitute a good season?
If your answer is “no one dies,” well, yes, that’s what you’re saying now. But glare intently at 80-ish games of shitty baseball, which will be just about the only new entertainment on TV every night, and you’ll change your tune pretty fast. “They risked an outbreak to bring us this shit?” you’ll ask, irritated, as Yolmer Sanchez goes 0-for-3.
Also, no one dying is a given here. If anyone in the majors dies, we can safely call the season a failure. If a non-uniformed employee dies, like a grounds crew worker, then the season will still be a failure but not enough people will care to cancel it and it’ll be forgotten pretty quickly. America!
But putting aside the circumstances of the season, what would be a good season? Let’s say the Giants go 45-37 and sneak their way into the last wild card spot. That’s certainly a success! And, considering where they’ve been since 2017, 41-41 would probably also be a success. What about 40-42? It’s only a one game difference.
…Sure feels different, though.
But of course, a purely record-based analysis falls short because the Giants are rebuilding. Who cares if they lose 42 games? The important thing is that some of their young players look like they can stick around for a while. If Jeff Samardzija starts 9 games with an ERA of 6, well, dang, that’s a higher draft pick. If Logan Webb starts 9 games with an ERA of 5.50, well, dang, that’s a roster spot the Giants won’t be able to count on for a Cinderella run in 2021.
It’s not just Webb, of course. Just among guys who were on the Giants last year, the team needs to see some results from Austin Slater and Mauricio Dubon and Alex Dickerson, and maybe Joey Bart, and double-maybe Heliot Ramos. They want to see Conner Menez, and figure out what Dereck Rodriguez has, and see if Mike Yastrzemski falls back to Earth this year, and…
It occurs to me that this is too many things to get definitive answers on in one half of one season.
This is the problem. The Giants need to get answers on what they can expect long-term from just about everyone who could possibly be on their roster long-term, and they don’t really have the time to do it. And worst of all, there’s nowhere else to develop their young guys, which is their top priority this year. And their third baseman, shortstop, first baseman, and catcher are all veterans coming off poor years who have earned the right to prove they’re better than their 2019 seasons.
Then, just for fun, you throw in that one of the hallmarks of a Farhan Zaidi team is stashing interesting depth pieces in AAA, seeing who performs, and giving him a chance in the majors. That’s not happening this year, which is a severe setback to a rebuilding team. Even with expanded rosters, how much playing time would Darin Ruf get if he goes 2-for-15 to start off the year? Gabe Kapler might have more rope than Bruce Bochy, but with an overstuffed (30 man? More?) roster, it’ll be tough to justify playing anyone who’s slumping when there’s someone else ready to go.
So what does a successful 2020 season for the Giants look like? It mostly looks like decent players hitting low ceilings. Not every young player, but enough that they could complement whatever stars start showing up in the future. Even in the realistic best case scenario, it’s likely to be an unsexy season for the Giants, and there are a whole lot of possibilities that are not the best case scenario.
Yes, it’s possible Ruf could have an Eric Thames-like explosion in his first season back in the States. Yes, Webb could turn into Matt Cain-lite. Yes, Dubon could be the Giants’ answer to Kiké Hernandez, playing half the positions on the field and hitting .300 to boot.
But none of those are the likeliest thing, and they shouldn’t be the standard for success either. The Giants just need positive steps from young players. They need to see progress, and multiple major league tools, and guys to not look overwhelmed. They need to give someone a chance with a short leash, and for it to, against the odds, work beautifully.
It will be much harder to see incremental progress in 2020 than in a normal baseball season, but we get what we get. The Giants need to see that progress. That’s the only way this season will be a success on the field.
And also they need no one to die. That’ll be hanging over everyone’s heads this year, so let’s repeat it. It would be great if no one dies this year in the service of baseball.