What's up with Taylor Rogers?

Other than TWINNING! Up high!

Yesterday, The Athletic reported that the Giants had put Thairo Estrada, Tyler Matzek, and Taylor Rogers on waivers. The reasoning behind Matzek is obvious: he’s hurt and is only in the organization to save the Braves a little of the Jorge Soler/Luke Jackson money they’re taking on and it’s phenomenally unlikely anyone claims him, but if anybody would like to, they can feel free.

Estrada has been a big part of the team for several years now, but he’s been abysmal offensively this season, and Alex Pavlovic explained it pretty succinctly, saying that:

Giants determined a while ago that Estrada was almost certain to be non-tendered this offseason. This could clear September at-bats for guys fighting for 2025 jobs (as well as save some money)

And then there’s Taylor Rogers. Pavlovic explained this one too, telling a fan that the Giants would be fine not paying him his $12 million salary next year. It makes sense, really. I mean, $12 million can buy you a lot. It could even get you a reliable left-handed reliever for a struggling bullpen.

HEY WAIT A MINUTE

Taylor Rogers has not had a bad season. There are nitpicks you can make, and asterisks you can append, but he has a 2.45 ERA on the year, and while his FIP and xFIP are a little higher than that, they’re still in the low to mid 3s, which is solid. He has one more year on his contract after this season, which is not a large number of years. The money is a little high, but it’s workable. So why do the Giants want to get rid of him?

Well, the answer seems to be that Bob Melvin absolutely does not trust him. Not at all.

In 2023, under Gabe Kapler, Taylor Rogers pitched in the third most crucial situations of any pitcher on the team who threw 10 innings. The closer is always going to be first, and second place was his brother Tyler, but there Taylor was, comfortably in third. His ERA was a little high, at 3.83, but that was due in large part to a terrible start to the season, when he developed a cutter that had the unfortunate tendency to get crushed for home runs. Once he canned that, good pitcher, great job.

In 2024, under Melvin, Taylor Rogers is pitching in the fourth least crucial situations of any pitcher on the team who’s thrown 10 innings. He is beating only Landon Roupp, Nick Avila, and Kai-Wei Teng. Luke Jackson, whose ERA this year was approximately 14 million, pitched in more crucial situations than Taylor Rogers did. Spencer Bivens has done a nice job this year, but should his innings really be more high leverage than Rogers’? What about Spencer Howard, who by the end of this sentence you will have already forgotten was ever on the team?

Again, Taylor Rogers has been good this year. He has had, statistically, a good season. But Bob Melvin is treating him like he’s radioactive, and the front office has gotten right on board with him. I couldn’t say if this is a scouting evaluation of this stuff he’s shown this year, or if Melvin is carrying memories of Rogers blowing saves for the 2022 Padres, or if Melvin plain doesn’t like the guy, but from the outside it looks ridiculous.

And here’s where it’s leaving us: a bullpen that needs to absorb innings won’t use a guy who’s throwing good innings unless it’s in garbage time (down 3 runs or more). The front office who signed him has put up a big neon sign that says FREE TO A GOOD HOME.

His Baseball Savant profile has a couple clear weaknesses, but there are a lot more strengths:

The low chase rate hasn’t hurt his ability to get a strikeout. Nobody’s hitting the ball hard against him. His fastball’s lost a mile or two, but it’s still working and there’s nothing screaming out that it won’t work next year.

I don’t get it. I wish I had another conclusion here, but I just don’t understand why this team gave up on Taylor Rogers this year. Like every reliever who’s ever lived, he’s had some bad outings this year. He’s had way more good ones, but they’ve all come in the 8th inning of games the Giants are losing 6-1. It seems such a natural solution to give Taylor Rogers a bigger role. Instead, they’ve chosen to marginalize him and are trying to get rid of him altogether. It’s honestly baffling.