Tomorrow, it’s time for the World Series. The Fall Classic! National League vs American League! The Senior Circuit and the Junior Circuit! Baseball’s best competing against each other! Two titans of sport! A battle that will be remembered for years to come!
You thought I’d have a joke there to wrap that paragraph up, didn’t you? I love to keep you guessing!
In honor of the upcoming series, I thought I’d preview the Diamondbacks’ showdown with the Rangers, using the latest in predictive technology to figure out who exactly will win. Let’s break it down!
Hitting
The Rangers have a great lineup, but the Diamondbacks have some dangerous hitters and are on a tear. Tough call!
Pitching
The Texas pitching staff was a little stronger overall than Arizona’s this season, but after the Diamondbacks remade their bullpen at the trade deadline, they came out a little stronger, especially in the last few innings of a game. But can you just dismiss Max Scherzer and Nate Eovaldi like that? Gosh, tough question. Gonna have to call this one a toss-up!
Defense
Probably the Diamondbacks. Unless it’s the Rangers.
Overall
I don’t know.
Look, is there utility in reading series previews? Sure, there could be some. If you want to learn about teams that you’re not familiar with — who is this “Marcus Semien” character, anyway, pray tell — then yeah, knock yourself out. Preview to your little heart’s content.
But anything beyond that? Certainty about who is going to win? Certainty about how many games the series will go? Even certainty about how players are going to perform? Nope. Absolutely not. No chance you get that.
This is what series previews sell you. They justify their existence by pointing out what a great player Ketel Marte is, but their titles aren’t Here Are Some Really Good Players Who May Or May Not Play Well In The Upcoming Short Series. What they promise is that they will tell you who is going to win, and then you will know that information before anyone else does.
But they can’t, of course. Tomorrow, before the game, Alex Rodriguez is going to say, like, “I think the Rangers will win this series in 6 games,” and Derek Jeter will say, “Rangers in 7,” and David Ortiz will do his exuberant David Ortiz thing and conclude with, “Diamondbacks in 6!”
Or something like that, anyway. I wouldn’t actually predict what any of them are going to predict, unless this was some meta-newsletter whose topic of The Folly Of Prediction needed some kind of example to drive its point it. But I don’t think so! I think you’re all smart and attractive and clever enough to get it by yourselves.
Any certainty is folly. We know this because, if it were possible to solve baseball and be both certain and correct about the outcome of a season, then it would not be worth watching baseball. Baseball, in a small sample, is a very random sport. Edgar Renteria might hit a Series-winning homerBarry Zito can outduel Justin Verlander, as one example. Travis Ishikawa might be the rightful NLCS MVP who only doesn’t get the votes because the writers vote before his walk-off homer. Anything could happen!
And that goes for this series too. Evan Longoria might make two spectacular diving catches at third base to prevent a runner at second from scoring the tying run, or he might throw a double-play ball into right field. Or, Longo might have a career-defining series at the plate, scorching the ball practically every time he comes up. or he might look like absolute crap, causing people to say, “He’s an old man of 38. What do you expect?”
Some of those scenarios might be more likely than others, but they’re all possible, and the beauty of baseball, and the beauty of the playoffs in particular, is that while it emphatically matters which of those events happen, you can never know in advance which one it will be. You could have known going into the 2014 postseason that Madison Bumgarner would pitch very well, but there is no way you could have known that he would have done what he did. Then, seeing that, perhaps you would later expect it from other starting pitchers in their postseasons, but you would again have no idea how they would actually perform.
We look for patterns in the meaningless and meaning in the patternless. We think that there must be someone who can think well enough to predict the future, who can give us forbidden knowledge that we are not meant to have. But that person doesn’t exist. Anytime anyone says they know what’s coming, they’re lying. Don’t listen. Don’t give them the time of day. And absolutely do not quote tweet them being dumb, because that engagement will boost their numbers and lead to a nice dopamine hit which they have not earned.
It is easy content to preview a World Series. It is easy, shameless content. But it’s hollow like sports gambling, hollow like Rob Manfred’s torso. Every time I see it, I wonder how anyone could think anything else, but a lot of them do. A lot of people are focusing on things that don’t matter and, by definition, can never matter. You can’t be sure of anything before the series starts, you can barely be sure of anything while the series is going, and even when it’s over it takes a while to sort through the rubble.
So don’t take previews seriously because they’re unserious content created for unserious people. They’re just not worth your time.
Oh, wait, there is one more category for my preview, which IS definitely worth your time. Totally forgot to put this one in earlier!
The Ratings
They’re going to be terrible and it’s not your problem.
That one, I’m sure of.
"I think you’re all smart and attractive and clever enough to get it by yourselves."
Well, now I'm blushing.