A new plan at second base

Because the old plan couldn't hit

There’s nothing better than knowing you made a difference. For example, on Thursday, I spent most of my newsletter saying that Tyler Fitzgerald was not hitting well enough to justify his pace on the major league roster, and suggested he be demoted to AAA. Yesterday, the Giants announced that they did just that, activating Justin Verlander off the paternity list and giving Fitzgerald a Capitol Corridor ticket to Sacramento.

Unfortunately, this was the logical, correct move. Whether it was the team’s decision or on his own, Fitzgerald had taken to bunting in just about every situation in which there was a runner on base and less than two outs. He drove in a run with one of those bunts on Sunday, but someone along the way lost confidence in his bat, and whether it was Bob Melvin or Fitzgerald himself (or both!), that’s just not going to work on a major league roster.

Christian Koss and Brett Wisely are likely also not going to work on a major league roster, but we can talk about that after the Subscribe box.

Since he came back in May from a rib fracture, Tyler Fitzgerald has hit .186/.245/.227 in 110 plate appearances. After a strong April, that has brought his overall season line down to .230/.289/.320. Meanwhile, Koss is hitting .219/.269/.260 on the season, and Wisely is at .230/.308/.357 in Triple-A, and did not reach base once in 12 plate appearances in the majors earlier this year.

It’s hard to argue, then, that this is a short-term move to boost production, or that the team believes in Koss or Wisely in a way that they no longer believe in Fitzgerald. No, this is about getting Fitzgerald back on track so that he can get back to helping the team. He needs regular at bats in a lower pressure environment where there will never be any reason for him to sacrifice himself for the good of the team. He needs to take those at bats, figure out his mechanics, and learn to get better, and that’s just not something that will happen in the majors.

As for Koss and Wisely, his short-term replacements, well, they really can’t be much worse. In that same time period that Fitzgerald has been hitting .186/.245/.227, Koss has been at .220/.264/.280, which is better, although still awful. His defense hasn’t been as strong as Fitzgerald’s, but it certainly hasn’t been disastrous, so the Giants won’t be losing much by putting him out there. As for Wisely, his offense may have collapsed, but if we look at his defensive numbers from last year, they are pretty strong, so if the team wants a steady hand at second when Logan Webb is on the mound, they can throw Wisely out there and he’ll basically be fine.

The longer term plan for the position, though, would seem to be Casey Schmitt. Schmitt has been on a tear since taking over for Matt Chapman at third, and unlike the hot streak that began his major league career a couple of years ago, his walk rate is showing the kind of pitch selection that might make his performance more sustainable. Schmitt is suddenly up to .286/.369/.462, good for a 137 wRC+, and while there is some room for regression there — a .361 BABIP isn’t going to continue forever — when he hits the ball, he is hitting it really hard, which is what you want to see. His batting average and slugging percentage are both lower than his expected AVG and SLG, respectively, and while that’s not necessarily predictive, it is a good sign that his results so far have been skill, and not luck.

What the plan would seem to be, then, is to make do with Koss and Wisely until Chapman gets back, at which point Schmitt will move over to second, and at least one of Koss and Wisely will get demoted, with the possibility that they’ll both be optioned if Fitzgerald looks anything like a major league hitter in Sacramento.

Because this newsletter has felt overly optimistic today, here’s how that could all go wrong:

• Koss and Wisely both hit just as badly as Fitzgerald, if not worse. The team is not worse off than it would otherwise be, but it puts pressure on the front office to declare Mission Accomplished and bring Fitzgerald back after a couple good games in Reno or Salt Lake, when he could really use more time

• Koss and Wisely are as good offensively as Fitzgerald, if not better, but each of them whiffs on a play in the field that Fitzgerald would probably make. Discontent grows among the pitching staff and fanbase because, look, at least Fitzgerald could make some plays in the field and run a little bit. That’s more than we’re getting now.

• Schmitt stops hitting this week and it turns out he hadn’t reinvented himself and was just on a hot streak. Now the team’s second base quandary involves four players who aren’t ideal, and not three.

• Schmitt keeps hitting while he’s at third, but stops when he moves to second, which is a less familiar position. Boy, this one would be the most annoying, wouldn’t it?

• Total societal collapse. Gotta stay on guard!

That’s not to say that those are more likely outcomes than the happy one where Schmitt hits well enough and plays good enough defense to stick at second, with Koss as his quasi-serviceable backup, but they are on the table. The important thing, though, is that we can see a plan. It’s a reasonable plan, and a rational plan, and like all plans it might not work out, but the Giants are trying something that has a shot at sticking long-term, with a backup option going to Sacramento who might also stick long-term. The wheels are in motion, and hopefully they’re driving the bus somewhere good.