Every year, my friend Mike and I make a gentleman’s bet regarding who can best predict the upcoming season. This year, we finished making predictions on Saturday, and sure, that was technically a couple of games into the season, but I promise we didn’t let the events that had already unfolded affect us in any way
Here is the format: we make our picks in each category for each league, swapping who goes first. For example, Mike went first for the NL West predictions, then I went first on the NL Central, then he went first for the East, and so on. Then, at the end, we each predict the World Series matchup, one specific outlandish prediction leaguewide, and then one stone-cold lock about the teams we root for (for me, the Giants; for him, the Dodgers). We are allowed to agree on exactly one division winner, and no more. This rule came about during 2017 or so, when it became clear that it was unfair to make one of us not pick the Cubs to win the NL Central against pathetic competition.
Without further ado, here are the picks:
NL West:
D: Diamondbacks
M: Padres
Mike got to pick first and went with San Diego, not because they’ll be dominant, but because at some point in the season they’re going to have a hot streak (22-2) and that'll carry them for the whole season. But he’s not too hot on the Dads; he thinks the rotation will fall apart at some point and the team will win the NL West on fumes.
I, meanwhile, have started a new startegy of Not Picking My Least Favorite Team In Every Division. We’ll, uh, see how that goes.
NL Central:
D: Brewers
M: Cubs
I went with the Brewers because I refused to be the asshole who picked the Cardinals. Mike went with the Cubs because, as a Dodger fan, he thinks that former Dodger Cody Bellinger will carry them to success.
NL East:
D: Mets
M: Braves
Look, the Braves are the smart pick. Fried and Strider make a great 1-2 combination. Strider in particular is so good he has that DeGrom-esque feeling of someone who will get injured because he can’t maintain being this good.
As for me, well, I probably wasn’t going to pick the Braves anyway because ew, Braves, so that left me with the injured Mets or the very injured Phillies. I had to go with the Mets. Remember when they signed Carlos Correa? Boy, did he make them better!
NL Wild Cards:
D: Dodgers, Padres, Phillies
M: Cardinals, Dodgers, Diamondbacks
The three games the Phillies played since I made this pick have convinced me that I may be incorrect about that one.
MVP:
D: Francisco Lindor
M: Freddie Freeman
Mike picked Freeman on the basis that it’s been a while since a Dodger won it. I picked Lindor on the basis that, y’know, he’s pretty good.
Cy Young:
D: Logan Webb
M: Zack Wheeler
HOMER PICK TIME. Sure, I’m not jinxing the Giants by saying they’ll win the division, but Logan Webb is really good. I think this is the year he gets some national attention for it.
As for Wheeler, Mike picked him because he’s really fucking underrated, and this is the year he gets rated.
Rookie of the Year:
D: Corbin Carroll
M: Ezequiel Tovar
I gotta back up my Diamondbacks pick somehow, right? If that team takes the step to being a contender, Corbin Carroll has to be a big part of it. He won’t be the only part, but he’ll have to be a big part.
Ezequiel Tovar is pretty good.
Disappointing team:
D: Dodgers
M: Phillies
For the first time in a while, it feels like the Dodgers have a regular good team instead of a superteam. This means that, compared to their regular expectations, they’ll have a disappointing year. They still may very well make the playoffs, but they should look mortal during the regular season for the first time in a while.
Meanwhile, Mike picked the Phillies, saying they will fall apart. He is correct.
Cool Team:
D: Padres
M: Marlins
My specific reason for calling the Padres cool: I think they’ll be bad boys. Fernando Tatis Jr will lean into his heel turn, there will be guys fighting in the dugout, and they’re gonna throw at batters and just straight up not give a fuck about consequences. You won't be able to look away.
By comparison, the Marlins have Jazz Chisholm. This is gonna be a close one!
Worst Record:
D: Nationals
M: Brewers
If I don’t win this, then I should quit watching baseball because I literally don’t understand how the game is played.
AL West:
D: Astros
M: Astros
Every year, we get to agree on one division winner, because there is often a division where it’s a gimme. This year, the AL West is that division. Who’s gonna seriously challenge the Astros? No one, and we all know it.
AL Central:
D: Guardians
M: Twins
Bounce back year for the Twins, baby! Or maybe Cleveland continues their stretch of making people say, “Yeah, they’re pretty good.”
AL East:
D: Blue Jays
M: Rays
The Blue Jays have lost a bit of luster, right? They’ve been the trendy pick for a little while, and I still want them to win (and am predicting them to win, obviously), but at some point you have to become The Team and win the division, and it hasn’t happened yet. Their pitching just hasn’t been good enough, and that looks like it will hold them back.
The Rays are not the Yankees, and that’s good enough for Mike to pick them.
AL Wild Cards:
D: Rays, Orioles, Mariners
M: Guardians, Blue Jays, Mariners
I honestly don’t know if my Orioles pick or my Mariners pick is dumber. Time will tell!
MVP:
D: Julio Rodriguez
M: Jose Ramirez
I can’t just pick Ohtani every year, can I? (after checking the bylaws that I myself made up) Oh, turns out I can. I probably should have done that.
Cy Young:
D: Framber Valdez
M: Shane Bieber
I like both of these picks. I think they’re neat.
Rookie of the Year:
D: Anthony Volpe
M: Triston Casas
I can neither confirm nor deny that I picked Volpe mostly because I was watching the Giants-Yankees game on Saturday as we finalized our picks.
Disappointing team:
D: Yankees
M: Rangers
Usually when it comes to disappointing teams, I just pick the Red Sox and call it a day. It basically always works. But this year, nobody expects the Red Sox to do anything. This is both good baseball analysis on the part of everyone and also very inconvenient for me personally. So I went with the Yankees, who will always be viewed as a disappointment if they don’t win the division.
Mike originally went with the Mariners, but considering the entire history of the Mariners, how disappointing can they be? So he switched to the Rangers, who, if the pitching fails, have an awful long way to fall. Because I both suggested and allowed the change, I get a half point if Mike is right. Good news for me!
Cool Team:
D: Tigers
M: A's
Here’s Mike’s theory: The A’s are a working man’s team, and they protest mistreatement by an umpire by not playing the next day. Everyone gets behind them. They’re right. They’re clearly right, and they’re singlehandedly responsible for Angel Hernandez or an umpire with a similar level of quality to Angel Hernandez retiring. You have to admit, that would be cool as hell.
Here’s my theory: the Tigers seem pretty cool.
Worst Record:
D: A's
M: Royals
World Series:
D: Guardians over Padres in 5
M: Braves over Rays in 6
My World Series would be a lot more fun. His is a lot more likely.
Stone cold lock:
D: Thairo Estrada steals 45 bases
M: Miguel Rojas is second in BA on the Dodgers behind Freddie Freeman
That ball Thairo fouled off his leg better not screw this up for me. He’s already at 2! That’s practically already 45 steals.
Miguel Rojas being great for the Dodgers would be incredibly annoying and I absolutely anticipate it.
Specific outlandish prediction:
D: Fernando Tatis Jr takes a giant shit on the field and slips on it
M: The Giants are in a do-or-die game on the day of my wedding. There's a Dave Roberts moment involving Thairo Estrada. Everyone's huddling around a TV-VCR rooting for Thairo Estrada to steal a base, which sets up the Giants to go into extras, and they win as the wedding is ending, and I can't watch.
So, Mike’s prediction involves the Giants playing in the NLCS on the day that Kristin and I get married this fall. In a tight, late inning situation, Thairo Estrada steals the biggest base of his life. The Giants tie the game with late dramatics. Wedding guests are huddled around a tiny TV, the only one they can find, watching it.
And I can’t watch.
Look, I would take it. I would take it and never complain about it in my life. But it would be a little annoying that what would surely become one of the most iconic moments in Giants history would happen when I can’t watch.
It is an excellent prediction.
My prediction is a poop joke. Seems about right!
Happy 2023 season, everyone. Hope it’s a good one.
Fun predictions! But you buried the lede. Congrats to you and Kristin, and best wishes for a long and happy marriage.