What is to be done (about the fifth starter)?
All the kids go crazy for half-baked Chernyshevsky/Lenin references
The Giants’ number one starter is Logan Webb. After a rough start, he has a 3.20 ERA. Yes, good. We like him.
The Giants’ number two starter is Alex Cobb. He has a 1.70 ERA and is 20th in the majors in fWAR. Outstanding. Zero notes.
The Giants’ number three starter is Anthony DeSclafani. He had a first inning hiccup against the Nationals, but even so, his ERA is sitting at 3.06. Can’t complain about that.
The Giants’ number four starter is Alex Wood. He looked decent before going on the IL, though admittedly he wasn’t going as many innings as you might hope. In his start yesterday he looked good in the first inning before giving up an awful lot of hard contact in the second, one of which left the park. But he rebounded for the rest of his start, and he’s certainly worth his spot in the rotation at the moment.
The Giants’ number five starter is the Biblical apocalypse. Every fifth day, seven seals open, seven trumpet blasts ring out, and seven bowls of wrath are poured on onto the Antichrist and his followers, which include malignant sores on everyone with the mark of the Beast, and the sea turning to blood and everything in it dying. Led by their king, Abaddon, locusts with human faces ravage the Earth, laying waste to every living thing in their path. Only the truly righteous are spared from the wrath of these unholy beasts as they wreak havoc upon the globe.
Then it’s Logan Webb again! Pretty cool!
So, the Giants have a fifth starter problem. The Giants also have fifth starter options. Let’s take a look:
Bullpen game
No! No, this is stupid! The Giants bullpen is awful! Why would you voluntarily pitch them for 9 innings? Absolutely not. There has to be a better way.
Sean Manaea
He did have an objectively good start this year. Remember? It was against the Royals, near the beginning of the year. He also recently pitched well enough to get a win, against the Brewers. So it’s possible to find an effective starting pitcher in there somewhere, if you look hard enough.
But, uh, you have to look really hard. On the year, Manaea has an ERA of 7.96, although to be fair, his FIP is a miniscule 6.61. His fastball velocity is higher than it’s ever been, but that fastball has been getting hit hard, and it’s not like his slider has been good. Only his changeup is even an okay pitch, and since the changeup relies on the fastball to be effective, well, he’s kinda stuck.
Is it possible for Manaea to rebound? Sure. Is that something anyone outside the Giants organization or his immediate family expects after that disastrous 2.2 IP, 8 R outing against the Nationals? No, probably not. So let’s take Sean Manaea off the table.
Ross Stripling
Unlike Manaea, whose struggles are at least an outgrowth of his poor 2022, Stripling’s awful year has kinda come out of nowhere. He’s been bad before, but that was in 2020, which was not a real baseball season. And this year, he’s giving up homers on 38.5% of his fly balls. That’s like 2 out of every 5 fly balls! If he gives up three to start an inning, statistically speaking he’s likely to allow at least one home run! Just for context, league average is around 10%, so that is nuts.
Can the Giants coaching staff fix this problem? I mean, I’d assume so. I certainly hope so. Can they fix it before the next time the fifth spot comes up in the rotation? Seems pretty doubtful, if we’re being honest. And besides, a 7.14 ERA and 7.28 FIP speak pretty loudly. Who’s next?
Jacob Junis
Junis was pretty good last year, and it was reasonable to hope that he’d be a solid piece again in 2023. Then he wasn’t a solid piece. So far, Junis has pitched 22 innings this year with an ERA of 5.32. He’s throwing harder than ever, but he’s also allowing tons of homers. 23% of his fly balls are leaving the yard, which obviously isn’t as bad as Stripling, but is still awful. But even if that’s a fluke or has to do with the 2023 incarnation of juiced ball bullshit, there’s one other stat to consider: He’s walking 10% of the batters he faces.
That’s too many. That’s simply, unequivocally too many. You can’t put a guy in the rotation when he can’t throw strikes, and you can’t put a guy in the rotation when he gives up tons of dingers. When you’ve got both? Unacceptable.
Tristan Beck
Bryan and I talked on the latest Giants Chroncast — rate us 5 stars on Apple Podcasts! — about that last spot in the rotation, and we agreed that Beck is the best choice for now. That…doesn’t mean that Beck is a good choice. He’s not a bad pitcher by any means, but he would essentially be getting the fifth starter job by default, because everyone else has already failed, so why not Tristan Beck? The answer is that Tristan Beck has also had homer problems this year, in both AAA and the majors, and Beck has been inconsistent out of the bullpen too. Will he make it work? Not necessarily. But could he make it work? Maybe! And that maybe is what makes him such a strong candidate1 for the fifth starter position.
Sean Hjelle
I mean, how many times do I have to write, “We’ve seen this guy pitch this year and he was bad”? Is this the last one? I hope this is the last one.
Anyway, Hjelle was really bad in the majors this year and I don’t think we want to see him back anytime soon.
Keaton Winn
Winn struggled in his first couple appearances this year, but over the last month, he’s pitched 20.2 innings in AAA, struck out 27, and walked just 7. He is already on the 40-man roster, but he’s not quite stretched out all the way yet, with his highest innings total in any game this year sitting at 4. Still, because the organization thought highly enough of him over the offseason…hey, where are you going? Don’t skip to the Kyle Harrison section! Don’t do it! You’ll be bitterly disappointed!
Kyle Harrison
Look, there’s no doubting the stuff. When that slider is on, holy shit is it good. There’s no doubting the potential, either, with scouts raving about his ceiling and makeup. But he’s not there yet. His strikeout rate is 16.2 K/9, which is phenomenal. His walk rate is 9.26 BB/9, which is abysmal. That’s the kind of control problem that major league batters will eat for breakfast, no matter how good he is at everything else.
And then there’s the inning count. Like Winn, Harrison hasn’t yet gone more than 4 innings in any start this year. I don’t think that’s anything to worry about — it very much seems to be an organizational mandate — but it’s not a great idea to call up a guy who, in the best case scenario, will still make you rely on your bullpen for 5 innings.
Just to be clear, I think Kyle Harrison will be a major league starter, and he might even be one by the end of the year. But I don’t think he’s one now, and the Giants certainly aren’t clamoring to start his 40-man clock any earlier than they have to. There are too many flaws and warts in Harrison’s game right now to rely on him in the majors, shiny as that new toy would be.
So what’s the answer? The answer is…there is no answer. Every one of these ideas has serious flaws. The alternative answer is Tristan Beck, I guess, but I wouldn’t get too excited about him. The Guy Who Hasn’t Failed Yet is always just one failure away from being forgotten.
Beck has youth and potential and, most importantly, Giants fans haven’t watched him personally be the reason the team lost a game. When that happens, we’ll all go casting about for the next one. For now, we’re grasping at straws, but hey, one of them might work and let you drink your drunk, right? Might as well find out.
Relatively
I skipped over this part of my education - didn't know what I missed!
"The Giants’ number five starter is the Biblical apocalypse. Every fifth day, seven seals open, seven trumpet blasts ring out, and seven bowls of wrath are poured on onto the Antichrist and his followers, which include malignant sores on everyone with the mark of the Beast, and the sea turning to blood and everything in it dying. Led by their king, Abaddon, locusts with human faces ravage the Earth, laying waste to every living thing in their path. Only the truly righteous are spared from the wrath of these unholy beasts as they wreak havoc upon the globe."
Pithy!!