What the Giants would have to do to make the playoffs
Not saying it's likely. Cannot stress enough how much I'm not saying it's likely.
Let’s just get this out of the way:
Okay, great. Good work, everyone.
So the Giants are bad. But! That doesn’t mean we can’t fantasize about the Bad Giants suddenly getting hot and becoming the Okay Giants, earning the coveted sixth playoff spot along the way. If we’re going to pin all our hopes and dreams on this — and I’d say we are — then let’s figure out how to make it happen.
The Giants are currently 54-57, and they are 23 games behind the Dodgers. If the Giants won every game for the rest of the year, they would end with 105 wins. If the Dodgers continue to play at their .697 pace, they would end with 113 wins. So if the Giants win every game for the rest of the year — including the six against the Dodgers — they would still probably not win the division.
Great! Makes things easier for us then, since we can forget about the division. I mean, I was going to do that anyway, but it’s nice to have the math to back me up.
So the Giants are aiming for the third wild card spot, then. They are currently in third place for that third wild card spot, and just looking at the standings, they’re closer to the Rockies (in 6th place for the third wild card spot) than they are to the Padres (the current owners of said third wild card spot).
Also, the Padres just got Juan Soto. Did you hear about that? Juan Soto? He’s really good, and it’s fair to assume that the Padres are going to get better as a result of having Juan Soto on their team. There isn’t a 100% chance, but there’s a good enough likelihood that I’m not going to focus on them. Instead, I’m going to assume the spot that’s actually up for grabs is the one currently held by the Phillies, a game up on the Padres, 3 behind the Braves, and 10 games back of the Mets for the division.
Targeting the Phillies here makes the Giants’ job one game harder at the moment, but I think the odds of a Phillies choke are higher than those of a Padres choke, plus the Giants are already 2-1 in Philadelphia, so it’s possible they can take the season series with a good series in early September.
The Phillies are currently 62-48. Over a whole season, that’s a 91-win pace. For the Giants to win 92 games, they would have to go 38-13 over the last couple months of the season, for a .745 winning percentage.
Hm. This is already wildly implausible. On the other hand, I’m already 400 words in, so no turning back now.
If the Phillies maintain their pace, they will win 91 games. However, let’s say they fall off a bit, facing strong opponents like the Mets and Braves and (he says, trying not to nicker) the Giants. Instead of going 29-23 to finish out the year, they cool off a bit and finish at 25-27. Dang it, Phillies! We all believed in you! Now they are ending the season at a perfectly respectable 87-75.
For the Giants to win 88 games, they will have to finish the year by going 34-17, for a .667 winning percentage. Still implausible! But, and this is important, marginally less implausible. Baby steps, people.
The news gets better, though. Because of the expanded postseason, there are no tiebreaker games. Instead, the team with the better head-to-head record automatically gets the last spot in case of a tie. So if the Giants go 33-18, including winning 2 out of 3 against the Phillies in early September, then they get the tiebreaker and the last spot in the playoffs. 33-18? That’s a cinch! That’s just a .647 winning percentage. Total lock.
Unfortunately, there’s another complication, though. There is a team between the Giants and the Phillies. Well, there are two if you count the Padres, but we’re ignoring the Padres, as you’ll recall. The Brewers are two games behind Philadelphia, which to an outside observer would seem to be a much stronger position than the Giants are currently in. If the Phillies go 25-27 to finish out the year, then, the Brewers would have to do no better than 27-25 to match them.
The good news: the Giants are currently 4-1 against Milwaukee, with just two games left to play, so they have already locked up the season series victory. Playofftowne USA, here we come!
So that, then, is the path to a playoff spot. The Braves win a bunch of games because they’re good. The Padres win a bunch of games because they’re good. The Phillies go 25-27 or worse. The Brewers go 27-25 or worse. The Giants play .647 ball over the last two months of the year.
It’s not impossible. It would not be the single strangest thing to ever happen in baseball history. People would not look back on it as a singular event, but rather as a good playoff race with an unlikely champion.1
But on the other hand, well, this all relies on the Giants not playing like a bunch of dunderheads — yeah, I said it — which would be a very sudden change. The Giants have spent pretty much the entire second half of the year playing like dog shit. That got them into a hole. The way out of it is to play incredibly well over their last 51 games.
The other way out is to not play all that well over their last 51 games and just wait till next year, but I’d prefer they go with the first option.
Using the word “champion” here loosely, considering, you know, we’re talking a third place finish among non-division winners
I’m leaning towards the second option, but I understand your preference.
The beauty of getting the 3rd Wild Card spot is that (1) you’re in the postseason but (2) you still draft around #18 or so. Not too shabby.